Last fall, my theory was that the pool of Heisman contenders would grow right alongside the expanding playoff field.
For generations, voters had shown a preference toward players who were in the thick of the national title race. So, as the College Football Playoff field tripled, it stood to reason that the field of viable Heisman candidates would expand as well.
By the time the final ballot had been counted in December, it was clear that this was no longer a theory. Not only did the winner come from a team with three regular-season losses, but five of the top six vote-getters played for programs that entered bowl season outside of the top eight of the CFP rankings.
For perspective, this hadn’t happened in a Heisman race since 2007.
If Heisman voters are casting a wider net again this fall, which long shots stand to benefit?
Let's dive into the Heisman Trophy odds and college football picks for new Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski.
Iowa QB Mark Gronowski
Heisman Trophy: +15000
Mark Gronowski is one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in America. He’s a two-time FCS national champion and a Walter Payton Award winner — the FCS Heisman.
He amassed over 12,000 total yards and 130 total touchdowns. As a starter, his career record is 49-6.
He has demonstrated incredible touch as a downfield passer at South Dakota State, particularly in the red zone, where he layered passes beyond linebackers' reach and in front of defensive backs.
He’ll also add something to Iowa’s offense that has been missing for 23 years: a dual-threat passer at quarterback.
In 2002, Brad Banks went ballistic for Kirk Ferentz, throwing for 26 touchdowns while rushing for 423 yards and five more scores. He led Iowa to the Orange Bowl and was rewarded with a second-place finish in the Heisman race.
Gronowski has the potential to put up bigger numbers in Tim Lester’s offense.
Lester was brought in to turn around a tire fire of an offense in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes' average offensive finish in the three years before Lester’s arrival was 118th in scoring and 128th in total offense.
In one year, he elevated the Iowa attack to 72nd in scoring, a 12.3-point upgrade year-over-year — and that was without competent quarterback play.
The combination of Gronowski and the master of the slow mesh, former Wake Forest offensive coordinator Warren Ruggiero, has major breakout potential.
Ruggiero earned a reputation as an offensive savant at Wake Forest, elevating quarterbacks like Sam Hartman, Jamie Newman and John Wolford to incredible heights. Hartman accounted for 50 touchdowns in 2021 while leading the Demon Deacons to the ACC Championship.
Gronowski is a considerably better runner than Hartman and could catch the Big Ten off guard if he masters Ruggiero’s slow mesh read option.
The schedule also sets up for stat padding. Iowa’s first two home games are against Albany and UMass.
If Gronowski can upset in-state rival Iowa State in Week 2, secure the Cy-Hawk Trophy and push his team into the AP top 20 by mid-September, his campaign will hit the ground running.
The rest of the Hawkeyes’ 2025 slate remains manageable. There’s no Ohio State, and they host both Oregon and Penn State. Kinnick Stadium has been a house of horrors for Penn State over the years. The Hawkeyes upset Penn State at home when the Nittany Lions were ranked third in 2008 and fourth in 2021.
Ultimately, this schedule is as ideal as it gets for a Heisman candidate in the Big Ten. It’s neither a gauntlet nor is it devoid of big stages that can cement Gronowski’s candidacy.
Gronowski could have a stat-friendly system to operate within, three or four marquee games to make a name for himself, and he has the story that voters will eat up — a rags-to-riches story spanning from Brookings, South Dakota to New York City.
And it doesn’t hurt that he’s a borderline genius, having already received a Master’s in engineering. At 150-1, Gronowski is the most compelling long shot on the board.
Pick: Mark Gronowski to Win Heisman Trophy (+15000)
