A significant shift has occurred in the college football futures market.
If you’re looking for the next Indiana, your potential payout is much lower this season than it was last year. The Hoosiers were once priced at 200-1 to make the College Football Playoff before reeling off 11 regular-season wins and punching their ticket to the 12-team field.
Indiana had won all of nine games in the previous three seasons before hiring Curt Cignetti, so oddsmakers figured the rebuild would take years.
Sportsbooks, to put it lightly, have learned their lesson. The longest odds for a Power Four program to make the CFP in 2025 belong to Purdue at 100-1. Doormats like Northwestern (80-1), Mississippi State (80-1) and Stanford (80-1) combined to win nine games last season, yet sportsbooks are too afraid to hang big numbers in the wake of IU’s breakout season.
So, what is a value bettor to do in this environment? Bypass the CFP market altogether and target the Heisman race.
There has been a significant shift in Heisman voter mentality in the past two years.
For generations, the award was generally presented to the best player on one of the best teams in America. Between 2001 and 2022, 16 Heisman winners either played for the national title or competed in the four-team CFP.
The last two Heisman winners — LSU's Jayden Daniels and Colorado's Travis Hunter — each lost three regular-season games and didn’t sniff the playoff.
Voters have shifted their mindsets, and the expanded playoff field now allows them to consider a broader list of candidates who are “in the mix” to make the 12-team field.
As I noted earlier this offseason, five of the top six Heisman vote-getters in 2024 suited up for programs that entered bowl season outside of the CFP rankings top eight. For perspective, this hadn’t happened in a Heisman race since 2007.
All of this table setting aside, who could be the beneficiary of an open-minded Heisman electorate? Let's dive into the Heisman Trophy odds and college football picks for Washington quarterback Demond Williams.
Washington QB Demond Williams
Heisman Trophy: +15000 (Caesars)
Williams checks every single box for me as a viable Heisman candidate.
He has the athleticism to run for 500 yards while generating “Heisman moments” with his legs. He has the accuracy to torch opposing defenses through the air, as he did in the bowl game against Louisville when he went 26-for-32 for 374 and touchdowns.
And he has a truly underrated supporting cast surrounding him. Denzel Boston is a big-bodied wide receiver at 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds who reeled in nine receiving scores in the Huskies’ first seven games last fall.
Jonah Coleman returns as a 1,000-yard rusher with a nose for the end zone (10 TDs).
Finally, the Huskies return three starting linemen from a unit that finished 29th nationally in Line Yards. They added Kansas State left tackle Carver Willis, who was one of the most sought-after linemen in the transfer portal.
Geirean Hatchett also returns to the program after transferring to Oklahoma in 2024. He was a member of the 2023 offensive line that helped Washington win its first Joe Moore Award for the nation’s top offensive line.
If this unit gels, it could be the top four in the Big Ten alongside Iowa, Ohio State and Penn State.
Coaching matters quite a bit when it comes to quarterback play at the college level, and I feel as though Williams is in good hands with Jedd Fisch on the sideline.
Fisch unlocked every ounce of potential in Noah Fifita while at Arizona. Fifita had a similar build to Williams and finished fifth in QBR among Power Four quarterbacks, trailing four passers who all went on to become NFL Draft picks in Daniels, Dylan Gabriel, J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix.
And finally, the schedule. Washington has a perfect schedule to produce a Heisman winner.
There are stat-padding opportunities at home against Colorado State, UC Davis and Purdue. Then, the Huskies have the opportunity to shock the world when they host Ohio State in late September and Oregon in the season finale.
Pepper in a road trip to Michigan, which could be starting an 18-year-old true freshman, and a nine- or 10-win season isn’t out of the realm of possibility for UW.
At 100:1, this is a ticket you’ll want to add to your Heisman portfolio.
Pick: Demond Williams to Win Heisman Trophy (+15000 · Caesars)
