The San Diego Padres host the Texas Rangers on July 6, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Sunday Night Baseball will feature the rubber match of a three-game interleague series between the Rangers and Padres. Jack Leiter (4.35 ERA, 71 1/3 IP) will start for the Rangers, while the Padres are going with David Morgan (2.08 ERA, 17 1/3 IP) as an opener.
Find my Sunday Night Baseball preview and Rangers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Editor's Note: This Rangers vs Padres preview was written before the Padres named Morgan as their opening pitcher.
My Rangers vs Padres Prediction
- Rangers vs Padres picks: Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Total Bases +165 (Fanatics, Play to +160)
My Rangers vs Padres best bet is Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Total Bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Padres Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Rangers vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jack Leiter (TEX) | Stat | RHP David Morgan (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.29 / 4.92 | ERA / xERA | 2.08 / 3.60 |
| 4.53 / 4.76 | FIP / xFIP | 3.67 / 3.45 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 0.98 |
| 8.6% | K-BB% | 19.1% |
| 40.1% | GB% | 35% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 91 | Location+ | 83 |
Nick Martin’s Rangers vs Padres Preview
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Below Average Performance
Leiter's results have improved considerably in his second MLB season, although they are still below average. In 2024, Leiter pitched to an 8.83 ERA and 6.25 xERA in 35 and 2/3 innings of work, and in his first 14 appearances this year, he has recorded a 4.29 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
Leiter also holds an xERA of 4.92, has been hard-hit 45.3% of the time, and holds a K-BB% of 8.6%. He has allowed right-handed batters to slug .450 this season and holds an xFIP of 4.95 versus righties.
He has continued to produce below-average results recently, as evidenced by his ERA of 5.47 and xFIP of 4.32 over his last five starts.
The Rangers' offensive play has remained below average over the last 30 days, ranking 18th in wRC+ and 19th in weighted on-base average.
They are currently offering a much more complete lineup than they have throughout most of the campaign, as Joc Pederson is the only position player currently on the IL.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Bogaerts On a Streak
The Padres are going through perhaps their most notable offensive slump out of the last two seasons, as they have a wRC+ of only 94 over the last 30 days and rank 23rd in batting average in that span.
Given the effectiveness of their proven lineup over the last two seasons, they will likely bounce back to some extent moving forward, especially given that they currently have no position players on the IL.
Meanwhile, Xander Bogaerts has gotten into a much better run of play after a relatively poor start to the season. In his last 67 plate appearances, Bogaerts has hit .328 with a hard-hit rate of 40% and an OPS of .913. He's also struck out only 13% of the time in that span.
Bogaerts holds fairly neutral splits versus same-sided pitching. He has slugged .355 versus righties this season and slugged .395 versus righties in 2024.
Left-hander Kyle Hart is currently the most likely candidate to pitch for the Padres. Manager Mike Shildt noted that the Padres are in Game 3 of a 10-day stretch and, therefore, are not looking to throw a bullpen game.
Hart holds a 4.67 xERA and 5.34 xFIP across 25 and 2/3 innings of work in MLB this season, with a 4.67 xERA in 44 and 1/3 innings of work in Triple-A.
Rangers vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
This edition of Sunday Night Baseball could be a fairly high-event matchup, as neither team will be starting out with an overly convincing starter. Leiter has been hard-hit 54% of the time over his last five starts and holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 11.8%.
Right-handed batters have hit Leiter well this season, slugging .450, and that seems likely to continue given his underlying results versus righties. Bogaerts has been one of the hottest batters in baseball over the last three weeks, and a hefty price of +170 for him to record over 1.5 total bases is quite appealing, considering the matchup versus Leiter.
Pick: Bogaerts Over 1.5 Total Bases +165 (Fanatics, Play to +160)
Moneyline
The current prices look fair, given the expected pitching matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
At the time of writing, I see no value in betting the run line.
Over/Under
My lean would be with the over in terms of betting on the total. Petco Park is a below-average ballpark for run production, and neither offense has been in particularly good form, but if it's Hart taking on Leiter, both teams will have a great chance to manage strong outputs early on.
