Finding ATP Futures Value in Buenos Aires and New York

Finding ATP Futures Value in Buenos Aires and New York article feature image
Credit:

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

On Sunday, we cashed a tennis future for the third straight tournament when Lucas Pouille defeated fellow Frenchman Richard Gasquet in the Montpellier Final.  It took some luck, however, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga retired against Pouille (after failing to serve for the match) with a leg injury from up 6-1, 5-5. We’ll take it.

Now, let’s take a look at next week’s tournaments in Buenos Aires, New York, and Rotterdam to see if we can make it four futures in a row. Also, make sure to check back in at the bottom of the article for any added daily plays on Monday.

Defending Champs

  • Buenos Aires: Alexandr Dolgopolov (d.) Kei Nishikori
  • New York (formerly Memphis): Ryan Harrison (d.) Nikoloz Basilashvili
  • Rotterdam: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (questionable) (d.) David Goffin


General Overview

Obviously, the late entry of Roger Federer (fresh off his 20th GS title) in the Rotterdam field has dominated the tennis headline over the past week. And while Roger is the clear favorite, he won’t necessarily have the easiest path (if seeds hold true).

  • R16 — Kohlschreiber or Khachanov (probably Khachanov)
  • QF — Wawrinka
  • SF — S. Zverev or Tsonga (pending fitness)
  • F — Dimitrov or Berdych

Last year, he failed to win the tournament following both of his Major wins. He lost in the second round of Dubai against Evgeny Donskoy and in Canada Masters vs. Zverev. So, the value here lies with someone outside of Federer.

Dimitrov opted out of Sofia (which he was defending) this week with a shoulder injury. The conditions in Rotterdam should suit the Bulgarian, although he’s only advanced to the QF twice (made the SF 2013). But if he is fit and catches fire, he might be the biggest obstacle for Roger. Dimitrov’s biggest test in his half of the draw may very well come against the man who took him out last year — David Goffin — in the quarterfinal.

The same could be said for Sascha Zverev, who looked much better last weekend at Davis Cup, straight-setting Nick Kyrgios and pulling out a five-setter against Alex de Minaur. If he can regain his form from last summer, he has an outside shot at winning this tourney. But with a tough first-round opponent in David Ferrer (who plays a style that has bothered Zverev), I don’t see the value.

Over on Long Island, the field at the New York Open is quite a bit less star-studded outside of Kei Nishikori, who will enter his first Tour-level main draw after a rehab stint on the Challenger circuit. After seeing him play a few matches in Dallas, he is clearly not all the way back, despite winning the title. He had to grind out a number of close matches against a lower level of competition. Winning this title would be a huge ask from Nishikori.

Stuckey and I were both eyeing someone from the top half of the draw. Personally, I like Kevin Anderson, and Stuckey was looking at Big John Isner. The bottom half of the draw is pretty ugly, to be frank, with Querrey, Mannarino, Harrison, and Stevie Johnson as the seeded players. Having said that, we didn’t see any value at the offered odds. Pass.

However, we did find value in Buenos Aires, which starts Monday afternoon EST. Let’s take a closer look at the Argentina Open.


ARGENTINA OPEN

Buenos Aires, Argentina | Feb. 12-18

Site: Buenos Aires Lawn Tennis Club,
Surface: Red Clay
Balls: Wilson Australian Open
Prize Money: $568,190

Form Check
  1. Domi Thiem
  2. Pablo Carreño Busta 
  3. Albert Ramos 
  4. Diego Schwartzman
  5. Fabio Fognini

Over in Buenos Aires, both defending-finalists are absent from this year’s field, as neither Nishikori nor Dolgopolov are in Argentina. Still, quite a decent draw in Buenos Aires for the Golden Swing’s second stop. In fact, for a 250 tournament, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a nicer looking field with the likes of Thiem, Carreño, Monfils, Fognini, Ramos, and Edmund all in action.

Despite the loaded draw, I like Domi Thiem’s chances. Realistically, after Rafa Nadal — Thiem is (by a considerable margin) the best clay courter on the planet right now. Thiem was 22-5 on clay courts last year, with three of those losses coming to Rafa Nadal (Djokovic and Goffin the other two). With inconsistent players like Gaël Monfils (15/2), and Fabio Fognini (12/1) tucked into his half of the draw, I like Domi’s chances of winning this title. Mind you, Thiem beat Nadal here in Argentina back in 2016 (in the SF). Even at such a low price, I think it’s worth a full unit investment.

On the bottom half, I see either Diego Schwartzman (15/2) or Kyle Edmund (11/1) facing Thiem in the final. While Edmund just enjoyed his big GS breakthrough in Melbourne, I think clay will prove to be his most successful surface. The same could be said for Schwartzman and PCB, who made their breakthroughs at the US Open.

Projected Semifinal

(1) Thiem vs. (4) Fognini
(5) Schwartzman vs. (6) Edmund

Projected Winner

Domi Thiem +230


Daily Hitters

Check back here later this morning for any potential ATP daily plays from myself or WTA action in Doha from Stuck.

Photo via Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports