3 Thursday WTA French Open Second Round Bets: Ashleigh Barty Looks Too Steep

May 29, 2019 06:15 PM EDT
Credit:

Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ashleigh Barty

  • Second-round betting action on the women's side rolls along on Thursday at the French Open.
  • Brett Farrenkopf fancies three more plays on the clay, including a fade of another seed in Paris.

Let’s not waste any time and get right into Thursday’s trio of bets on the women’s side, starting with another fade of a seed at the French Open.


Danielle Rose Collins (+406) vs. Ashleigh Barty

This is just another mispriced favorite playing on her least favorite surface who I must bet against. Barty is the rightful favorite, but I have her priced at closer to -250.

Barty has experienced career-best result on clay this year, having made the quarterfinals in Madrid. However, her wins have not come against the greatest competition. The Aussie has never performed well on clay in the past, and her game simply does not thrive on the surface.

After winning the Miami Open in March, Barty had these thoughts on her upcoming clay season (via Tennis 365):

“I just have to learn how to use it properly, learn how to enjoy it. It’s something I haven’t grown up with, obviously I’m more comfortable on hard court because I play on it more often. But this clay court season, in particular, is an opportunity for me to learn more about myself on that surface.”

On top of that troubling quote and her clay history, she also withdrew from the Strasbourg tournament last week with a right arm injury. To me, it looks like she’s hoping for the best this week and gearing up for grass season (where she shines).

Unfortunately, Collins isn’t the most seasoned clay court player, either.

She grew up in the U.S. and went to college at the University of Virginia, which means she didn’t play many clay matches — especially on red clay. Her career-best performance on clay came this spring in Charleston, where she lost in straight sets to Monica Puig in the quarterfinals. But even that tournament is played on green clay, a much different surface than Roland Garros.

Ultimately, I think this price is just too high. Collins did take a set off Barty earlier this month in Madrid and her big game can compete with the top players on Tour.

A strategy I sometimes employ for betting these big underdogs is, if they win the first set, I try to hedge after that on their opponent at anything around -110, thus getting what essentially amounts to a free play in this case at +296 on Collins.

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