Thursday French Open Quarterfinal Preview: Favorite Bets for Thiem-Khachanov

Jun 05, 2019 10:55 AM EDT

Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dominic Thiem

  • 2019 French Open betting action rolls along on Wednesday with the final day of quarterfinal matches for both the men and women.
  • On a day expected to see plenty of rain, our staff looks at their favorite bets for the match between Karen Khachanov and Dominic Thiem.

We might not get much tennis betting action on Wednesday with the forecast calling for rain pretty much all day in Paris. We do have four scheduled quarterfinal matches — two  each on the women’s and men’s sides — as we approach the end of the 2019 French Open.

Our staff took a closer look at one of Wednesday’s scheduled ATP matches between Dominic Thiem (-322) and Karen Khachanov.

Sean Zerillo, Brett Farrenkopf and Stuckey weigh in on both the side and over/under..

Sean Zerillo: Dominic Thiem -1.5 Sets (-160)

These two have only matched up one previous time at the Tour level, on the indoor hard courts at the Paris Masters in 2018, with Khachanov defeating Thiem 6-4, 6-1.

However, Thiem is the much more accomplished player on clay and has significantly more Grand Slam experience.

Over the past year on dirt, Thiem has a 1.6% advantage over Khachanov in holding service games, and an 8.3% edge in winning return games. This is also Thiem’s fourth straight quarterfinal appearance at Rolland-Garros and fifth overall at a major.

Meanwhile, Khachanov is making his first quarterfinal appearance at a major. And prior to his four-set victory over Juan Martin del Potro on Monday, he was 0-6 against top-10 opponents at Slam events.

Del Potro has dealt with injuries recently, withdrawing from the Australian Open, Acapulco and Indian Wells in 2019. He has been undergoing platelet-rich-plasma (PRP) injections in his knee and has considered getting surgery.

Khachanov’s service games against Thiem will be a much more difficult task than they were against del Potro, who still earned nine break points against the Russian with nowhere near the level of defensive movement or ability as Dominic Thiem.

Meanwhile, Thiem was dominant in his straight sets victory over Gael Monfils on Monday. The Austrian faced only one break-point while creating 12 in a 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 routine victory.

He did an excellent job of absorbing the pace on Monfils’ shots early, waiting for the Frenchman to make unforced errors. He then became the aggressor later in the match with his high-spin, one-handed backhand down the line.

Thiem has only dropped one set total in his three other quarterfinal appearances at the French Open, defeating Alexander Zverev (2018) and Novak Djokovic (2017) in straight sets — and beating David Goffin (2016) in four. He also defeated Marco Cecchinato in the 2018 semifinals in straight sets.

Thiem has never played a five-set match in the French Open. I’ll look for him to continue that streak and advance past Khachanov either 3-0 or 3-1 here.

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