Thursday French Open Quarterfinal Preview: Favorite Bets for Thiem-Khachanov
Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dominic Thiem
- 2019 French Open betting action rolls along on Wednesday with the final day of quarterfinal matches for both the men and women.
- On a day expected to see plenty of rain, our staff looks at their favorite bets for the match between Karen Khachanov and Dominic Thiem.
We might not get much tennis betting action on Wednesday with the forecast calling for rain pretty much all day in Paris. We do have four scheduled quarterfinal matches — two each on the women’s and men’s sides — as we approach the end of the 2019 French Open.
Our staff took a closer look at one of Wednesday’s scheduled ATP matches between Dominic Thiem (-322) and Karen Khachanov.
Sean Zerillo, Brett Farrenkopf and Stuckey weigh in on both the side and over/under..
Sean Zerillo: Dominic Thiem -1.5 Sets (-160)
These two have only matched up one previous time at the Tour level, on the indoor hard courts at the Paris Masters in 2018, with Khachanov defeating Thiem 6-4, 6-1.
However, Thiem is the much more accomplished player on clay and has significantly more Grand Slam experience.
Over the past year on dirt, Thiem has a 1.6% advantage over Khachanov in holding service games, and an 8.3% edge in winning return games. This is also Thiem’s fourth straight quarterfinal appearance at Rolland-Garros and fifth overall at a major.
Meanwhile, Khachanov is making his first quarterfinal appearance at a major. And prior to his four-set victory over Juan Martin del Potro on Monday, he was 0-6 against top-10 opponents at Slam events.
Del Potro has dealt with injuries recently, withdrawing from the Australian Open, Acapulco and Indian Wells in 2019. He has been undergoing platelet-rich-plasma (PRP) injections in his knee and has considered getting surgery.
Khachanov’s service games against Thiem will be a much more difficult task than they were against del Potro, who still earned nine break points against the Russian with nowhere near the level of defensive movement or ability as Dominic Thiem.
Meanwhile, Thiem was dominant in his straight sets victory over Gael Monfils on Monday. The Austrian faced only one break-point while creating 12 in a 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 routine victory.
He did an excellent job of absorbing the pace on Monfils’ shots early, waiting for the Frenchman to make unforced errors. He then became the aggressor later in the match with his high-spin, one-handed backhand down the line.
Thiem has only dropped one set total in his three other quarterfinal appearances at the French Open, defeating Alexander Zverev (2018) and Novak Djokovic (2017) in straight sets — and beating David Goffin (2016) in four. He also defeated Marco Cecchinato in the 2018 semifinals in straight sets.
Thiem has never played a five-set match in the French Open. I’ll look for him to continue that streak and advance past Khachanov either 3-0 or 3-1 here.
Brett Farrenkopf: Thiem -1.5 Sets (-160)
I’m with Zerillo here.
Khachanov has been solid so far this tournament, his career best performance on clay.
However, he now meets his stiffest competition in Thiem, who had lapses of concentration in the first week of the tournament but looked supreme vs. Monfils. Thiem’s serve and follow-up forehand dominated throughout that match. Thiem only faced one break point, which came in the first set when he already had a two-break lead.
I expect Thiem’s first serve to be equally as dominant against Khachanov — whose return game has never thrived on clay. He’ll have confidence coming off of his win over del Potro, but Thiem’s level and fitness is significantly above DelPo’s.
Still, Khachanov has the ability to dominate one set and Thiem does have moments where he fades. I just don’t expect that to happen in more than one set. Thiem should make another Roland Garros SF and in less than five sets.
FWIW: On the women’s side, I want to back Keys especially at +145 but the weather forecast for Wednesday is most-concerning.
Stuckey: Over 38.5 Games
I don’t like much tomorrow. I will primarily be rooting for a lack of rain and my remaining futures that are in action on Wednesday in Dominic Thiem and Madison Keys.
In general, I find it much harder to find value at Slams in the second week. However, I do think the damp conditions will hurt Thiem’s game more than it will Khachanov.
The Russian owns a 3-0 head-to-head if you also include exhibitions, which don’t mean much from a handicapping perspective but should at least give Khachanov a confidence boost in his first ever Slam quarterfinal appearance.
Thiem should ultimately have too much class on clay and make his fourth consecutive semifinal at Roland Garros — but I think it will be a battle. The conditions will certainly be a much greater detriment to Thiem’s heavy topspin.
I think we are going at least four sets with a few breakers. Rain delays could also break up the momentum of the match and end any hot streaks that each player is very capable of getting on.