Saturday WTA Wimbledon Best Bets: Is Sloane Stephens Worth a Wager?

Saturday WTA Wimbledon Best Bets: Is Sloane Stephens Worth a Wager? article feature image

Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sloane Stephens

  • Betting action will continue at Wimbledon on Saturday with the final four women's third-round matches.
  • Brett Farrenkopf examines all eight matches and details how he is betting Day 6 in London.

Another eight women’s matches are on tap for Saturday at Wimbledon. A number of the tournament betting favorites will be in action in what looks to be a competitive overall day.

Let’s take a closer look at each of the third-round WTA matches on a fairly tricky day.

Petra Kvitova (-625) vs Magda Linette (+500)

  • My line: Kvitova -500
  • Start time: 6 a.m. ET

In her first tournament back from injury, Kvitova has looked back on top of her game, especially on serve. She’s only been broken twice in four sets. The Czech will now face a pesky opponent in Linette, who upset Amanda Anisimova on Thursday.

Linette doesn’t do anything special but will relentlessly fight for every point until the end. Her movement is above average on grass, and she’s decent at taking the ball early for winners.

That said, if Kvitova maintains her level from the first two rounds, she should have no issues. While the line is a bit inflated, I see Kvitova moving on.

Belinda Bencic (-218) vs Alison Riske (+187)

  • My line: Bencic -210
  • Start time: 6 a.m. ET

This is one of the third-round matches I’m looking forward to the most. I expect an entertaining, back-and-forth affair between two high-quality players on grass.

Riske has played two three-set marathons to make it to this point, while Bencic has taken care of business in straight sets against two power hitters.

Belinda Bencic (SUI) celebrates after defeating Naomi Osaka (not pictured) in her fourth round in the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Belinda Bencic

What’s been most impressive about Bencic so far is her serve has held up. She’s only been broken three times, which is a positive sign for an area she struggles with at times. She’s also won over 50% of her second serve points.

Bencic has an excellent 47:20 winners-to-unforced-errors ratio so far this tournament. If the Swiss can maintain that, she should advance to the fourth round for the third time in five Wimbledon appearances.

While the Bencic has looked outstanding in the first two rounds, Riske is a step up in class from Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Kaia Kanepi.

Riske has had an outstanding summer and this is her best surface. However, I see this playing out similarly to their meeting last year here when Bencic won in three sets: 1-6, 7-6 (10), 6-2.

Elise Mertens (-150) vs Qiang Wang (+130)

  • My line: Mertens -170
  • Start time: 6 a.m. ET

Qiang hadn’t showed much on grass entering this event (just one career Wimbledon win), but she’s had two decent results this week. While Mertens is much better competition than clay court specialist Tamara Zidansek and an off-form Vera Lapko, Qiang should come in with plenty of confidence from those two wins.

Mertens has been superb in her first two matches. Her second-round win over the tricky, slicing Monica Niculescu was most impressive. Despite not serving at her best, she still won 7-5, 6-0.

Qiang will present a much different test than Niculescu. She hits a flat ball and goes for winners. Qiang also holds a 3-0 head-to-head advantage over Mertens, though each of the three victories came on hard courts and were all tight three-setters.

I expect another competitive match, but the surface advantage and form for Mertens should be the difference.

Carla Suarez Navarro (-150) vs Lauren Davis (+130)

  • My line: Suarez Navarro -170
  • Start time: 6 a.m. ET

Davis is playing her best tennis in three years. She also has some decent past results on grass. Her upset of defending champion Angelique Kerber will most likely be the biggest of the tournament.

The American now gets a beatable third-round opponent in Suarez Navarro, who has never been proficient on grass. The Spaniard is just 27-24 (52.94%) for her career on grass but has twice reached the fourth round at Wimbledon.

The question is: Can Davis avoid the letdown and back up that enormous win? She’s also trying to advance to the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the first time, having lost all four career third-round matches at a major.

In what should be a very competitive match, I wanted to back Davis as an underdog. Unfortunately the price came in very, very low. I would only play Davis at +150 or better, so will stay away unless this line moves significantly.

Serena Williams (-211) vs Julia Goerges (+181)

  • My line: Serena -250
  • Start time: 8 a.m. ET

Goerges has gotten through the first two rounds with ease but neither opponent was seven-time Wimbledon champ Serena Williams.

While the German had two relatively routine victories, her main weapon — her first serve — has still been shaky. After getting a respectable 62% in during Round 1, she only managed 49% in her last match.

If Goerges wants to pull off this upset, she’ll need to live in the 65% range. When she has got her first serve in, she’s won 83% of points — the second-highest clip of the tournament.

Serena started very slow versus teenage Czech Kaja Juvan. However, from the middle of the second set on, she played some of her best tennis of 2019. If she can replicate that level, she should beat Goerges for a second-straight year at Wimbledon and improve to 5-0 overall.

However, at age 37, Serena’s game is as inconsistent as ever, so it’s not a given that she’ll bring her A-game from the start.

Serena Williams (USA) in action during her match against Angelique Kerber (GER) on day 12 at All England Lawn and Croquet Club. Mandatory Credit:
Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Serena Williams

Kiki Bertens (-200) vs Barbora Strycova (+175)

  • My line: Bertens -205
  • Start time: 8 a.m. ET

Bertens was on the ropes in the second round, when she had to save a match point (with a bit of help) in the second set against Taylor Townsend. The Dutch will have to raise her level to beat an in-form Strycova.

Strycova has always performed well on grass and made the quarterfinals here in 2014. The spin she puts on the ball can frustrate opponents on this surface. And relative to most players on Tour, she has superior movement on grass.

This is a major step up in talent compared to Strycova’s first two opponents, but she can certainly pull off the upset. She should get to a lot of balls and make Bertens hit extra shots in awkward positions. Bertens will have to keep her unforced error count down to advance.

I was hoping to back Strycova in this spot, but the number came in too short of my target, so I will pass unless the market moves Strycova to +190 or better.

Ashleigh Barty (-2055) vs Harriet Dart (+1350)

  • My line: Barty -2000
  • Start time: 8 a.m. ET

Not much to see here.

Barty is not only playing the best tennis in the world and is on her favorite surface. Dart just does not have the talent to compete.

Anything can obviously happen in a one-match scenario, but Barty should move on with ease.

Johanna Konta (-190) vs Sloane Stephens (+165)

  • My line: Konta -185
  • Start time: 9:30 a.m. ET

This is another fantastic matchup on Saturday.

Konta has dominated Stephens in 2019, going 3-0 and only dropping one set in a tiebreak. Konta should also benefit from playing on a surface she prefers much more than Stephens.

Mar 6, 2019; Indian Wells, CA, USA; Johanna Konta (GBR) in her first round match against Pauline Parmentier (not pictured) during the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Johanna Konta

Konta is a very difficult opponent at Wimbledon especially given her current plus-form. She has carried over the momentum from clay season and continues to hit winners.

Still, Sloane is dangerous in this spot.

Albeit against weaker competition, the American has looked rock solid so far this tourney. And the further Stephens goes in Grand Slams, the stronger she usually gets.

Stephens will have to bring her superior movement and counter-attacking skills to make this a competitive match.

I do believe this number is a touch inflated but I’ll likely just be a spectator unless it moves significantly.

Saturday WTA Wimbledon Bets

  • Bencic/Mertens ML Parlay +148

I will monitor any line moves to see if any value opens up, but that’s it for now.

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