Wimbledon Predictions, Day 3 ATP Picks for Fonseca vs Brooksby, Jarry vs Tien

Wimbledon Predictions, Day 3 ATP Picks for Fonseca vs Brooksby, Jarry vs Tien article feature image
Credit:

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images.
Pictured: Jenson Brooksby.

Wimbledon second-round action begins at the All England Club on Wednesday, July 2.

For Day 3, I have Wimbledon predictions for two second-round ATP matches: Joao Fonseca vs Jenson Brooksby and Nicolas Jarry vs Learner Tien.

Continue below for my Wimbledon picks for Wednesday.

Quickslip

Wimbledon Predictions, Picks — Second Round

Joao Fonseca vs Jenson Brooksby Odds

Fonseca Odds-225
Brooksby Odds+175
Over/Under38.5 (-118o / -120u)
Time | How to WatchWednesday, 6 a.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings

This should be a thrilling clash between two young players who have contrasting styles, which have led them to great heights already in their respective careers.

On one side of the matchup, Joao Fonseca is a ball-masher. He possesses incredible talent, hitting a brilliant first serve and ripping through the court with his huge forehand, but that's just the type of player Jenson Brooksby likes to see on the opposite side of the net.

The American is a cerebral assassin, using his unconventional backhand to both generate winners through the court and drop in some sneaky two-handed slices which are impossible to read.

He's had a brilliant season on grass, too, where he can get a bit more power out of his weaker groundstrokes to generate some winners, and his serve has looked far more consistent than it did when he last appeared at tour level prior to a suspension.

I always love backing the more strategic of two players on grass, especially when they possess the defense to make an impact on this surface. Facing Brooksby for the first time can be a handful, and coming off a match where he hit just 31 winners to 31 unforced errors, it wouldn't seem like Fonseca is playing lights-out tennis at the moment.

I'm confident that the Brazilian's first-serve percentage should come back to Earth after he landed 71% in the first round, and I'm just as optimistic that Brooksby will come in with a game plan to remove the tantalizing weapons that Fonseca possesses.

It's not like we saw a generational performance out of Fonseca in the first round, and he's had a tumultuous season after earning an upset victory over Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open.

Brooksby, meanwhile, has quickly built back his form and shot up the rankings with an excellent run to the finals of Eastbourne last week and now stands at 14-9 on grass for his career.

There's no reason this match should be priced like this.

Pick: Brooksby Moneyline (+175 via DraftKings)

Nicolas Jarry vs Learner Tien Odds

Jarry Odds-165
Tien Odds+125
Over/Under40.5 (-130o / -110u)
Time | How to WatchWednesday, 6 a.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM

Learner Tien is just getting his career started, and that means for him — more than anyone — grass-court experience has been hard to come by.

With that said, as a "pusher" who relies heavily on his defense and consistency to win points, this should be a wonderful surface for him to hit some career milestones.

One of those could come on Wednesday as he looks to move into the third round of his first Wimbledon against a big server in Nicolas Jarry.

The young American just went toe-to-toe with a fellow countryman who plays incredibly similar tennis in Nishesh Basavareddy, and he held up brilliantly in hitting 43 winners to just 24 unforced errors.

While the win might not provide much in terms of name value, Tien's performance against a supreme defender speaks volumes about his potential on grass — and how threatening he'll be to a one-dimensional power player like Jarry.

The Chilean will be dealing with a bit of fatigue after coming through Holger Rune in the first round —  and on top of that, he'll be forced to play a ton more points against one of the most gifted young returners and defenders on tour.

I expect Tien to wear Jarry down and generate a ton of errors out of his erratic opponent and improve to 5-3 on grass — a record which has been hard-earned against some big players like Ben Shelton.

Tien came close to turning things around when he faced Jarry on grass a couple of weeks ago in qualifying for Halle, and now with a rest advantage and a best-of-five match, which will truly bring the cream to the top, he should emerge victorious.

Pick: Tien ML (+125 via DraftKings)

About the Author
Kenny Ducey, a leading voice in tennis betting and MLB handicapping, has built an online following through his work for Tennis Channel and his background in baseball reporting for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. With over a decade of experience, including covering the New York Knicks and Yankees for Fordham's WFUV Radio, Ducey writes betting previews for Action Network and contributes digitally to Tennis Channel, having also worked for NBC Sports and DraftKings.

Follow Kenny Ducey @kennyducey on Twitter/X.

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