Sobel’s Honda Classic First-Round Matchup Bets: Luke List is Just Like… Tiger?!

Sobel’s Honda Classic First-Round Matchup Bets: Luke List is Just Like… Tiger?! article feature image
Credit:

Orlando Ramirez, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Luke List

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. – Dammit, I wanted some heavy winds.

When I first arrived here at PGA National on Monday afternoon, the wind was whipping around this place like it was a normal day at Carnoustie, huffing and puffing and gusting back and forth.

Alas, it didn’t continue.

We got drenched with rain on Tuesday night, softening up the golf course and the forecast calls for only some light breezes during the opening round.

On one of the PGA Tour’s toughest tracks, those bigger gusts would’ve caused scores to rise throughout the day, especially with new greens still playing a bit firm. Instead, expect some scores in the mid-60s on this par-70 track, with even-par numbers still well within shouting distance.

Here are my three favorite matchup bets for the first round:

Lucas Glover over Scott Piercy (-120)

With some more rain potentially in the Wednesday night forecast, it’s going to make chipping very difficult if they’re playing the ball down in the opening round. I like the fact that Glover ranks second in greens in regulation this season.

Hitting 18 GIRs and two-putting all of ‘em won’t be a bad Thursday score. Meanwhile, Piercy went on Twitter to react to content about his poor play on Bermuda grass, saying he won the Zurich on that surface last year.

True, but it was a two-man event and Billy Horschel did a lot of the heavy lifting – and the stats don’t lie.

Alex Noren over Luke List (-105)

I see List as sort of like Tiger – you know, minus the 14 majors and billion dollars. What I mean is that a check of List’s first-round scores show he rarely goes super low, but even more rarely blows up.

Much like Tiger, he’s the type who tends to feel out the course on Thursday; even last year, when he finished runner-up here, he opened with just a 71.

Noren is a guy who tends to feast on non-elite fields and I think he’ll be more comfortable this week – where he, too, played well last year – than at some majors and WGCs.

Adam Scott over Brooks Koepka (-110)

I always tell myself on Wednesday, “Don’t look at the pro-am scores… don’t look at the pro-am scores… don’t look at the pro-am scores…” And then, of course, I look at the pro-am scores.

Scott posted a bogey-free 6-under 64 on Wednesday, which might only mean he can make putts after four amateurs give him the read.

It has no bearing on anything. And yet… as I wrote in my tourney matchup piece, I like a big fade on Koepka this week, so that score at least validates my opinion that Scott should start stronger here.