2020 TOUR Championship Betting Picks: Our Favorite Outright Bets at East Lake Golf Club
Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Webb Simpson
- Our golf staff highlights their favorite outright bets for Friday's 2020 TOUR Championship.
- Webb Simpson is one player who stands out among the field as a potential outright winner at East Lake.
- See who else is presenting value in our comprehensive betting analysis below.
The TOUR Championship features a 30-player field and features a strokes-based system, called FedEx Starting Strokes, instituted for the first time in 2019. The player with the lowest total score will win the FedEx Cup and be credited with an official victory at the TOUR Championship.
Here’s how it will work:
Dustin Johnson, the FedEx Cup points leader after the first two playoffs events, will begin the TOUR Championship at 10-under par. Jon Rahm will begin at 8-under, Justin Thomas at 7-under, Webb Simpson at 6-under and Collin Morikawa at 5-under.
After Morikawa, the rest of the field is grouped in bunches of five and assigned the same score, based on the FedEx Cup Standings. There are five players who will start at 4-under, five at 3-under and so on, until we get to the players ranked 26th-30th, who will begin at even par.
The format for the 2020 TOUR Championship provides a unique opportunity for golf bettors. The staggered scoring system opens the door for some game theory. Do you want to pay up for the players with a headstart? Or do you want to go after a big price on a golfer who will need to make up some ground?
Here are our favorite outright bets for the FedEx Cup Finale at East Lake:
Webb Simpson +1000
I’m rooting for chaos.
Just like those who secretly (or not-so-secretly) root for every undefeated CFB team to lose in their conference championship before the playoff to promote full anarchy, I’m hoping for golf’s version of it this week.
Simpson was the lone player to skip last week’s BMW Championship, insisting he wanted to rest up before the season finale. You might now call that a poor decision, as he’ll start behind each of the world’s top-three players. Or you can call it a brilliant move, as DJ, Rahm and JT each exhausted themselves playing a brutally wonderful Olympia Fields course, while Webb rested up.
Either way, if he seriously contends or even wins this week, expect plenty of debates over the validity of a playoff which allows a player to skip an event and still claim the title. It’s very possible, though. Simpson owns three top-five results in seven career starts at East Lake.
It’s difficult to back anybody when they’re spotting strokes to a trio of superstars, but if you’re rooting for chaos, then Webb is clearly your guy this week.
Webb Simpson +1000
It won’t be easy to knock off DJ, Rahm, and JT this week; but if anyone can do it it’s Webb Simpson.
Webb has arguably been the most consistent player on tour this year while steadily climbing the OWGR to become the 6th ranked player in the world. Simpson loves Donald Ross designs and ranks 1st in the field in total strokes gained all-time on those courses.
There is a strong correlation with East Lake and Sedgefield Country Club, which Webb has dominated throughout his career. Additionally, Webb plays his best golf on shorter par 70 tracks with Bermudagrass greens, which is exactly what we are getting at East Lake.
After taking last week’s BMW Championship off, he should come in well rested and ready to win his first FedEx Cup Championship.
Daniel Berger 72-Hole Stroke Play Winner (+1800)
Note: The starting strokes do not count for this bet.
I have no desire to lay shots to Johnson, Rahm or Thomas. I also don’t want to pay up for those three at such low odds. So instead, I’m looking at the 72-hole stroke play winner market on bet365.
Berger is far enough up the leaderboard that I expect him to come out and play aggressive early and try to work his way into contention.
Berger may not have enough runway to catch Johnson or Rahm, but East Lake is a good fit for his iron game and he’s better on Bermudagrass, so I think he’s capable of playing as well as anybody this week.