WGC-Mexico Championship Betting Picks: Our Experts’ Best Bets at Chapultepec
Pictured: Carlos Ortiz. (Photo by Katharine Lotze/Getty Images)
- Looking for betting picks for the 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship? You're in the right place.
- The tournament begins Thursday at 12:03 p.m. ET, and Rory McIlory sits atop the odds board as a +500 favorite.
- Check out how our experts are betting the event, as they've listed their four favorite picks below.
The stars will be South of the Border this weekend for the first WGC event of 2020. The WGC-Mexico takes place at Club de Golf Chapultepec and features a limited but very strong, 72-player field.
This is the fourth time this event will be played at Chapultepec. Dustin Johnson has won two of the previous trips here and he is one of two golfers — Justin Thomas is the other — to finish inside the top-10 in all three tournaments at Chapultepec. The only other golfer with a win here is Phil Mickelson.
Club de Golf Chapultepec is a par 71 that measures at 7,345 yards but because of the altitude in Mexico City, it plays much shorter than that.
With that in mind, here are our favorite bets for the WGC-Mexico Championship:
The Bet: Carlos Ortiz Top-40 Finish (-105)
Ortiz might not have as much upside as countryman Abraham Ancer, but the Mexico native does own the motivation of playing this event for the first time this week.
Quite frankly, Ortiz might be on my list of players to watch right now no matter the event’s location. He ended last year T-4 and T-2, and after a few squirrely results to begin this year, he’s gone T-25 and T-26 in his past two starts. With just 72 players in the field, top-40 isn’t much of a stretch.
While others out of the overall picture might, shall we say, have a bit less inspiration during the weekend rounds, I expect Ortiz to be fully engaged no matter what, which should equate to a result easily within the top half of the field.
The Bet: Carlos Ortiz Top-20 Finish (+300)
Ortiz finally gets his crack at this event as the top Mexican not inside the Top-50 in the Official World Golf Rankings and I like his prospects at this course, which closely mirrors the classical, parkland style tracks that he grew up on in Guadalajara, Mexico.
Ortiz has had his most success on tour at a similar classical course, Riviera, where he’s finished 20th, 26th, 9th and 26th in four starts. Those finishes may not pop, but it’s worth noting that Ortiz sat inside the top-20 for over three rounds in a strong field at Riviera last week.
Riviera also features the same Kikuya rough and Poa greens that we will see in Mexico, which is another reason you see the same players have success at both of these back to back events.
Ortiz won twice in Latin America on the Korn Ferry tour in 2014, including once in Mexico, and finished second earlier this year at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Playa del Carmen.
I like the value on Ortiz to snag a Top-20 finish in this 72-player field.
The Bet(s): WGC-Mexico: Paul Casey Top-20 Finish (-110, DraftKings)/Puerto Rico Open: Scott Brown Top-20 Finish (+138, DraftKings)
Casey hasn’t finished outside the top-20 in three starts at Chapultepec. He’s on my outright card this week after leading the Riviera field in ball striking, so I like his chances to play well again in Mexico.
I’ll also tack on a top-20 for Scott Brown in Puerto Rico at plus money. Brown has finished inside the top 20 in six of his seven starts at the event and is fresh off a second place finish last week.
The Bet: Rory McIlroy (-125) over Dustin Johnson
While DJ has won this tournament twice, McIlroy has still held his own, finishing second and seventh in his two appearances. However, I prefer the McIlroy side of this bet because he has the better recent and long-term form.
Per the FantasyLabs Player Models, he leads the field with his 67.8 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), compared to 68.2 for DJ. Additionally, McIlroy’s recent form (67.7 Adj Rd Score) is a full stroke better than DJ.
While DJ’s form isn’t “bad,” it’s not quite as good as McIlroy’s right now. He’s second in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds (Fantasy National), and DJ is just 47th. I don’t mind laying a little juice on Rory considering he superior metrics to DJ in everything I’m weighing this week.