Perry’s 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Picks: The Golfers Who Have the Most Value, Including 2 Longshots

Credit:

Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Jason Day

Feb 06, 2020, 10:08 PM EST
  • Jason Day, unsurprisingly, is one of the betting favorites at the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+1800 betting odds to win the tournament). The reason? He's historically performed very well at this event, with five top-6 finishes in his past seven starts.
  • But Joshua Perry's picks aren't focusing on the favorites; instead he's betting a slew of golfers in the mid-tier and longshot range, given the tournament's reputation to crown either the big names or the no-names.

We had a couple of close calls at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week but nothing came together.

Byeong-hun An and Bubba Watson popped up on the leaderboard a few times, but in the end it was Webb Simpson’s day. Playing Simpson at 14-1 isn’t in my repertoire, so it’s pretty easy to move past that and focus on Pebble Beach.

This tournament features a Pro-Am format and will be played on three separate courses, so get ready for a lot of celebrity appearances and six-hour rounds.

The Course(s)

As mentioned, this tournament will take place on three courses — Pebble Beach, Monterrey and Spyglass Hill — over the first three days with the players all heading to Pebble Beach for the final round.

All three courses measure under 7,000 yards, meaning they are among the shortest on tour.

In good weather conditions, Monterrey is usually the easiest of the three courses. But if the wind picks up, Spyglass has more trees that protect it and becomes much more playable compared to Pebble and Monterrey.

With the lack of distance, the driver plays much less of a role at this event. Instead, it usually comes down to a good iron player who can handle putting on bumpy, fast poa annua greens.

That isn’t to say the bombers can’t win here. Dustin Johnson and Jason Day  have had a fair amount of success here, but we’ve also seen a player like Brandt Snedeker win multiple times as well.


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The Favorites

Dustin Johnson opens as the favorite at +600. DJ has a pair of wins here, but he’s traveling back from Saudi Arabia after a second-place finish last weekend. The travel seemed to throw him off last year, relegating him to a 45th-place finish. We’ll see if he’s able to adjust better this time around, but that question makes it pretty easy for me to move past him at this number.

Patrick Cantlay is next in line at +1200. He’s never really factored in here despite being a California native who should be comfortable with the slow rounds.

Jason Day at +1800 is probably the first real threat to ruin the betting card to me. He always plays well here it seems. Surprisingly, he’s without a win despite five top-six finishes in the last seven years.

The next tier includes last year’s runner-up Paul Casey at +2000 and Matthew Fitzpatrick at +2200. We also have Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker at +2500 who have seven wins between them here. Snedeker was on my radar this week after a third place at Torrey Pines a couple weeks ago. But I’ll wait on the course draw for him and see if we can get him on Monterrey later in the week and add him live.

The Mid-Tier

I’ll open here by going back to Branden Grace at +3000. He is coming off a ninth-place finish in Phoenix last week and his form seems to be coming around, so I don’t mind jumping back in against a weak field. He’s also a guy way down the board for most of the majors right now and is worth keeping an eye on. I took a chance at 150-1 for the PGA in a few months. I don’t see that number jumping any higher, but if his form stays intact over the next few months, he’s a guy that will dip into the 60-1 range by the time the events tee off.

I’ll also take a shot on Adam Hadwin at +6600. Hadwin was coming off a three-month layoff following the birth of his child before shaking off the rust with four rounds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Hadwin has proven he can play well in this pro-am format. He’s got multiple top-five finishes at The American Express and he’s made the cut each time he’s played this event, including a top-20 last season.

My last play in this range will be Scott Piercy at +7000. He was 10th here a year ago and is coming off a solid sixth-place finish in Phoenix. The ball-striking is where it needs to be for him to compete, so it will just come down to the putter showing up.

Longshots

Pebble Beach tends to go the big names or no names, so it’s not a bad event to toss a few longshots in and hope to find the next Vaughn Taylor or Ted Potter Jr.

I’m taking a couple of chances down the board, starting with Michael Thompson at 225-1. Thompson was 10th here a year ago and tends to play his best on the west coast.

I’m also backing JJ Spaun at 250-1. He doesn’t have any positive history here, but he finished third in strokes gained: approach in Phoenix so his ball-striking is on form.

I’ll be looking to play top-5 bets on Grace, Hadwin and Piercy and top-20 bets on the two longshots. Additionally, I’ll be keeping an eye out for live adds following rounds at Pebble Beach and look for good ball strikers further down the board and try to add them before they head to the easier courses.

The Pebble Beach Card

  • Branden Grace +3000 (1.1 units)
  • Adam Hadwin +6600 (.5 units)
  • Scott Piercy +7000 (.47 units)
  • Michael Thompson +22500 (.15 units)
  • JJ Spaun +25000 (.13 units)

Total Stake: 2.35 units

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