Perry’s 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Picks: The Golfers Who Have the Most Value, Including 2 Longshots

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Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Jason Day

Feb 06, 2020, 10:08 PM EST
  • Jason Day, unsurprisingly, is one of the betting favorites at the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+1800 betting odds to win the tournament). The reason? He's historically performed very well at this event, with five top-6 finishes in his past seven starts.
  • But Joshua Perry's picks aren't focusing on the favorites; instead he's betting a slew of golfers in the mid-tier and longshot range, given the tournament's reputation to crown either the big names or the no-names.

We had a couple of close calls at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week but nothing came together.

Byeong-hun An and Bubba Watson popped up on the leaderboard a few times, but in the end it was Webb Simpson’s day. Playing Simpson at 14-1 isn’t in my repertoire, so it’s pretty easy to move past that and focus on Pebble Beach.

This tournament features a Pro-Am format and will be played on three separate courses, so get ready for a lot of celebrity appearances and six-hour rounds.

The Course(s)

As mentioned, this tournament will take place on three courses — Pebble Beach, Monterrey and Spyglass Hill — over the first three days with the players all heading to Pebble Beach for the final round.

All three courses measure under 7,000 yards, meaning they are among the shortest on tour.

In good weather conditions, Monterrey is usually the easiest of the three courses. But if the wind picks up, Spyglass has more trees that protect it and becomes much more playable compared to Pebble and Monterrey.

With the lack of distance, the driver plays much less of a role at this event. Instead, it usually comes down to a good iron player who can handle putting on bumpy, fast poa annua greens.

That isn’t to say the bombers can’t win here. Dustin Johnson and Jason Day  have had a fair amount of success here, but we’ve also seen a player like Brandt Snedeker win multiple times as well.


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The Favorites

Dustin Johnson opens as the favorite at +600. DJ has a pair of wins here, but he’s traveling back from Saudi Arabia after a second-place finish last weekend. The travel seemed to throw him off last year, relegating him to a 45th-place finish. We’ll see if he’s able to adjust better this time around, but that question makes it pretty easy for me to move past him at this number.

Patrick Cantlay is next in line at +1200. He’s never really factored in here despite being a California native who should be comfortable with the slow rounds.

Jason Day at +1800 is probably the first real threat to ruin the betting card to me. He always plays well here it seems. Surprisingly, he’s without a win despite five top-six finishes in the last seven years.

The next tier includes last year’s runner-up Paul Casey at +2000 and Matthew Fitzpatrick at +2200. We also have Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker at +2500 who have seven wins between them here. Snedeker was on my radar this week after a third place at Torrey Pines a couple weeks ago. But I’ll wait on the course draw for him and see if we can get him on Monterrey later in the week and add him live.

The Mid-Tier

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