Sobel: My Favorite Waste Management Open-Super Bowl Props
Orlando Ramirez, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jon Rahm
- There are plenty of cross-sport props available to bet with Super Bowl 53.
- Jason Sobel picks a few of his favorite Waste Management Phoenix Open-Super Bowl props.
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Not sure if you guys have heard, but the Super Bowl is also taking place this week.
Let’s take a look at three crossover props and see if there’s some value in betting some Super Bowl-Waste Management Open props.
Jon Rahm final-round score (-20.5) vs. Yardage of longest touchdown by either team
Even though he closed with a 72 here last year and his final-round scoring average is a middling 69.75 this season, I’m willing to give Rahm an adopted homefield advantage and mark him down for a 67 this Sunday.
That means there would need to be a TD of at least 47 yards – and I’m willing to bet against that. In each team’s last four games, neither has scored a TD that long; the longest was a 46-yarder in the Patriots’ season finale by (of all people) Kyle Van Noy and that wasn’t even an offensive touchdown. I’ll take Rahm, give the points.
Greg Zuerlein points scored (-3.5) vs. Justin Thomas final-round birdies
The truth is, I’d like to put these together and bet the over. JT has a penchant for making a ton of red numbers at this event; last year, he posted 21 eagles/birdies in four rounds.
If we expect five (the average from last year), that means Greg the Leg needs, say, two field goals and three extra points to cash this prop. Following playoff games where he’s finished with 12 and 14 points, respectively that feels like a low bar.
What worries me is the unconventional that so often happens in a Super Bowl – a safety here, a missed PAT there – which can render the kicker less meaningful. Even so, I’m giving the points on this one, too.
Josh Reynolds receptions (-1.5) vs. Phil Mickelson final-round bogeys or worse
In last year’s final round, Mickelson had one Sunday blemish – a final-hole double-bogey. The year before that, he had (gulp!) five of ‘em. If that Phil shows up, forget about it; Reynolds never went for more than five receptions in a game all year. Assuming we average those two final rounds, we’re looking at three bogeys-or-worse for him.
Since Cooper Kupp’s injury raised Reynolds to the Rams’ third receiver role, he’s compiled 27 catches in eight games for an average of 3.38. In their two playoff games, that average has dropped to 2.5. You know Lefty loves a challenge, but this is as much of a Reynolds fade as anything else. The numbers suggest we should take Mickelson and the points in this prop.