Open Championship Best Bets: Expert Golf Picks on Favorites, Long-Shots, More

Open Championship Best Bets: Expert Golf Picks on Favorites, Long-Shots, More article feature image
Credit:

Peter Casey-Imagn Images. Pictured: Ludvig Aberg

The 2025 Open Championship tees off Thursday morning from Royal Portrush Golf Club in Northern Ireland.

Our golf experts have broken down all the best ways to bet the fourth and final major championship of the year.

Here are our Open Championship best bets and golf picks for this weekend.

Open Championship Best Bets

Quickslip
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Jordan L. Smith

To Make The Cut (-155)

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By Justin Van Zuiden

I will gladly take these odds on Jordan L. Smith to make the cut.

Smith has been an above-average player on the DP World Tour for years now, he has played well in high-profile events in Europe, and he would be getting a LOT more attention if he had more PGA Tour experience.

Despite a poor start to last week's event, he was still able to manage a top-25 finish, with three consecutive sub-70 rounds to close out the tournament.

He should be closer to -200, and I'll play the -155 all day.

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Ludvig Aberg

Outright Winner (+3000)

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By Spencer Aguiar

We aren't going to go forever without Ludvig Aberg being a major champion. I know he's only 25, but I think the question becomes what the best venue is for him to capture his first major title.

The obvious answer is Augusta, and we saw that with back-to-back Top 10 finishes there, but I think for all the difficulty that Royal Portrush presents, it has enough birdie-making potential that a lot of the statistics in my model outweigh some of the flaws that Aberg sometimes has in navigating mistakes.

My model ranks him first in the field from 200-plus yards for proximity. He's second in the field for weighted off-the-tee performance. And I think it might be that combination that ends up proving to be the ultimate weapon for him.

If he's one of the best drivers and is able to avoid some of the mistakes that we know are going to come into play because of his putting, I think this is a very desirable location for him.

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Xander Schauffele

Outright (+2500 · 0.5u) · Top 10 (+260 · 1u)

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By Kyle Murray

We were on Xander Schauffele last week, and while he didn't come through he added another Top 10 as he finished T8 at the Scottish Open.

Schauffele actually led the field in strokes gained on approach last week, as it appears that his iron play is really coming into form.

He still struggled a bit with the putter, but if Schauffele can get it going on the greens he should easily be in the mix this weekend, and there should really be some value on this number considering he has fallen out of that top tier of guys and settled in this 25-1 range with guys that I think he is much better than at his peak.

Over the last year he is fourth in SG: Approach in this field while also ranking 10th in SG: T2G. He has also had success on links and coastal courses over the last couple years, as he ranks second just behind Scottie Scheffler in those conditions in total strokes gained.

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