Open Championship Picks, Predictions, Odds, PGA Tour Betting Preview

The 2025 Open Championship tees off this Thursday morning from Royal Portrush Golf Club Club in Northern Ireland, as many of the world's top players will compete in the final major tournament on the golf calendar.

Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite to win the Open Championship at +500 odds at BetMGM. He's followed by Rory McIlroy at +700 and Jon Rahm at +1200.

The defending champion of the Open Championship is Xander Schauffele, who is +2500 to win this year's tournament.

We're entering this tournament red-hot after cashing an outright bet on Chris Gotterup at +9000 in the Scottish Open last weekend. We also cashed Keegan Bradley as an outright winner last month and have two painfully close finishes this month with playoff losses by both Max Greyserman and Emiliano Grillo.

Let's see if we can stay hot and pick another outright winner with our 2025 Open Championship picks and golf best bets this weekend.

2025 Open Championship Picks

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Xander Schauffele

Outright (+2500 · 0.5u) · Top 10 (+260 · 1u)

We were on Xander Schauffele last week, and while he didn't come through he added another Top 10 as he finished T8 at the Scottish Open.

Schauffele actually led the field in strokes gained on approach last week, as it appears that his iron play is really coming into form.

He still struggled a bit with the putter, but if Schauffele can get it going on the greens he should easily be in the mix this weekend, and there should really be some value on this number considering he has fallen out of that top tier of guys and settled in this 25-1 range with guys that I think he is much better than at his peak.

Over the last year he is fourth in SG: Approach in this field while also ranking 10th in SG: T2G. He has also had success on links and coastal courses over the last couple years, as he ranks second just behind Scottie Scheffler in those conditions in total strokes gained.

Tommy Fleetwood

Outright (+2800 · 0.25u) · Top 10 (+250 · 1u)

Tommy Fleetwood lost in heartbreaking fashion a few weeks ago at the Travelers, and he recorded a T34 finish last week at the Scottish Open. However, he actually played a lot better than that T34 would indicate as he just had a tough week on the greens.

Fleetwood is playing excellent golf right now, as he ranks inside the top 10 in this field in SG: Approach, SG: T2G, SG: Ball Striking and Total Strokes Gained.

He has also had success playing on links and coastal courses in the past and even finished second in the 2019 Open Championship that was hosted at Royal Portrush. 

Viktor Hovland

Outright (+3000 · 0.25u) · Top 10 (+330 · 1u)

I love Viktor Hovland this week and it really seems like some of those swing issues have been silenced. Hovland finished third at the U.S. Open and T11 last week at the Scottish Open.

Hovland has had a T14 finish or better in three of the last four Open Championships and in my model he ranks 2nd in SG: Approach and 7th in SG: Ballstriking.

If Hovland can find the hot hand with the short game, he has a great chance to contend here.

Sepp Straka

Outright (+5000 · 0.25u) · Top 20 (+180 · 1u)

I find Sepp Straka checking a lot of boxes for me not just this week, but as someone who I think will win a major at some point.

That might sound crazy as Straka has missed the cut at all three majors this year, but he also had three top-20 finishes in majors in the two years before that.

Straka is in some good form, as he finished seventh at the Scottish Open as well as third at the Memorial a couple months ago.

Straka is one of the more accurate ball strikers in this field and he is inside the top 10 in total strokes gained on links and coastal courses over the last couple years as well.

Straka's ability to hit greens in regulation and avoid bogeys has him at the top of the board for me this week.

Justin Thomas

Outright (+5000 · 0.25u) · Top 20 (+200 · 1u)

Justin Thomas was someone I kind of overlooked at first, as there are a few guys at shorter odds that really stood out in my expected strokes gained model. But after hearing Spencer Aguiar talk about JT on our Action Network Podcast this week, I took a deeper look at Thomas' baselines and he simply cannot be ignored.

In my mixed conditions strokes gained model, Thomas ranks 11th in putting, 14th in approach play, 17th around-the-green, 15th in tee-to-green play and 7th in total strokes gained in this field.

Thomas also ranks 20th in total strokes gained on links and coastal courses over the last two years, so although he has not had much luck at Open Championships recently, he certainly has the profile to fit here.

Ben Griffin

Outright (+9000 · 0.15u) · Top 20 (+320 · 0.85u)

It seems as if the golf betting world may be forgetting about Ben Griffin this week thanks to his missed cut at the John Deere, but prior to that Griffin was one of the hottest golfers on the planet and this course seems like a strong fit for him as accuracy will be required at all times.

Going back to that missed cut, Griffin actually hit the ball very well that week, he was just one of the worst putters in the field. I would not expect that to carry over here as Griffin ranks inside the top 30 in this field in strokes gained putting over the last six months.

Griffin missed the cut the last two years at the Open, which I think is a big reason for this 90-1 number, but Griffin is also a much better golfer now than he was at those times.

Top 20 Long-Shot Parlay +14000

Jason Day | Russell Henley | Adam Scott | Maverick McNealy

In the major tournaments I also like to throw together a little long-shot parlay on top-20 finishes.

For this event I'm looking at Jason Day, Russell Henley, Adam Scott, and Maverick McNealy.

This pays out at 140/1 at Fanatics. It's also available at FanDuel where it pays out at +9756 as of this writing.

How to Watch the 2025 Open Championship

• What: 153rd Open Championship
• When: July 17-20, 2025
• Where: Royal Portrush Golf Club, Northern Ireland
• Par: 71
• Length: 7,381
• Purse: $17 million

Round 1: Thursday, July 17

• Live stream: Peacock (3 a.m. to 3 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: USA Network (4 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.)

Round 2: Friday, July 18

• Live stream: Peacock (3 a.m. to 3 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: USA Network (4 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.)

Round 3: Saturday, July 19

• Live stream: Peacock (6:30 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: USA (5 to 7 a.m. ET); NBC (7 a.m. to 3 p.m. ET)

Round 4: Sunday, July 20

• Live stream: Peacock (6:30 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: USA (4 to 7 a.m. ET); NBC (7 a.m. to 2 p.m. ET)

Open Championship Odds, Favorites, Long-Shots

Odds via BetMGM and as of Tuesday