The Ryder Cup tees off this week at the Black Course of Bethpage State Park in Farmingdale, New York.
Home soil has meant so much at the Ryder Cup, with the host winning five straight. Will we see a repeat of the "Miracle at Medinah"? Or is the U.S. poised to defend its home turf?
Let's dig into our Ryder Cup best bets.
Spencer Aguiar's Ryder Cup Best Bet: USA (-150)
I'm taking the USA to win at -150.
You can find some spots where ties equal no bet. You have to be very careful about how you bet this because if you're looking at just winning the cup at the end, if it's a tie, Europe's going to retain the cup. So, it's something to keep in mind if you're actually going to bet USA.
I'm going to break this down in two different ways. The first is that I ran projections for these two teams if both managers made optimal decisions at every single opportunity. Now, we know that's not going to be true, but my math thought the USA should win, give or take, about 53.5% of the time.
So, from a pure mathematical perspective, it's only about -115 if you're trying to find the true odds of what that price should be. So, at the bare minimum, technically, Europe is probably the better value based on that number.
But the counterintuitive answer that I want to talk about is that it’s really, really tough to gauge. There is just this indisputable edge that teams get on home soil in the Ryder Cup. What that advantage is, however, is going to be more subjective.
I think there's definitely an edge here to get a team on home soil. I don't think it hurts that the USA, when I ran projections for this course, had the two best players in Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau.
So, if you're really trying to find out how you get from that 53.5% edge up about 6% more to actually make this valuable, we can look at the home-course advantage to find that 6% edge.
Kyle Murray's Ryder Cup Best Bet: Europe Second Group Foursomes (+160)
I think home-field advantage is so unique to golf because these guys aren't used to the sort of atmosphere that they step into in the Ryder Cup. When you compare it to football, at least to some extent, those guys have been playing in those sorts of environments throughout college, or at least in the regular-season games.
For golf, it's a whole different atmosphere.
So, when I was trying to assess these teams and break down the rosters, I was trying to find the upside of each unit.
It’s difficult to project who's going to be playing in which matches and who's going to be in which group, so I'm looking at the first day and the second group, and I'm taking Europe on the second group in the foursomes at +160 at DraftKings.
I think the USA is actually the more volatile team, which I believe will benefit them in terms of their upside. And I think that will actually help them in the four balls. But in the fours, I think that Europe actually sets up to be more consistent. So, I like them here at +160.
Additional Ryder Cup Picks, Expert Bets
Aguiar: Scottie Scheffler 1st Out (+265)
I like Scottie Scheffler to be the first man out in singles for the USA and that's at +265 over on DraftKings.
I'm not going to sit here and pretend to know how Keegan Bradley is going to play this situation, but my only theory is that Scheffler's odds to go out first should probably be better than the general perception just because of how the singles are set up for Sunday.
Murray: Bryson DeChambeau to be Top 3 USA Point Scorer (+125)
I like Bryson DeChambeau to be a top-three USA point scorer.
When projecting all of these players on a per course basis and how they fit for the spot, it's tough to overlook DeChambeau. Obviously, at Bethpage Black, everyone knows how important distance is going to be, and surely we know DeChambeau is not lacking in that category. So, it comes down to him being the best fit for it from a driving perspective on this course.
Aguiar: Ben Griffin Over 1 Point (-138)
I really like Ben Griffin here.
I think there's a chance — I'm not saying it's a strong likelihood — he gets Bryson DeChambeau as his partner. I think if you get DeChambeau immediately, that over/under is a really nice spot for Griffin.
My hope is that he plays both of those two days, and he gets a Sunday singles match. So, if you could tell me today that he has three opportunities to play, which is not a given, I think this over/under number is a really, really great value.
Murray: Cam Young to be USA's Top Points Scorer (+1200)
We're not necessarily strangers to long shots, and I'm looking at Cam Young at 12-1 to be USA's top points scorer.
I was basically just looking for a guy a little bit down the board who I thought could play his way into maybe earning some more matches on day two. I think Young is a guy who can do that, starting with individual play.
Young also benefits from team matches, as he has performed well in match play in the past. It’s a very limited sample size, so you don't want to get too carried away, but Young also fits this course very well.
