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Lo Duca’s ALCS Game 3 Betting Preview: Will Red Sox-Astros Go Over Again?

Lo Duca’s ALCS Game 3 Betting Preview: Will Red Sox-Astros Go Over Again? article feature image

Tommy Glligan, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dallas Keuchel

Betting odds: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

  • Red Sox moneyline: +118
  • Astros moneyline: -131
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (+105/-125)
  • First pitch: 5:09 p.m. ET
  • Channel: TBS

>> All odds as of 12:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets

Both games in the ALCS have gone over the total, and bettors clearly expect Game 3 to follow suit as 71% of the bets on the total are on Over 8.5 (see live betting data here).

It makes sense on the surface that the majority of bettors believe there will be nine or more runs in this game. Both offenses have looked good in the first two games, and the pitching matchup in Game 3 pales in comparison to the two matchups we saw at Fenway.

We’ve got two very different pitchers on the mound on Tuesday evening. The Red Sox will turn to the flamethrowing Nathan Eovaldi, who is coming off a stellar Game 4 performance against the Yankees last week, while the Astros will start ground-ball king Dallas Keuchel, who fits the “soft-tossing lefty” mold.

Boston’s bullpen scares me a little bit, but I think we can get enough out of Eovaldi to keep this thing tight into the late innings.

In his start against the Yanks, Eovaldi allowed one run on five hits in seven innings. He fanned five batters and walked none. In fact, the 28-year-old hasn’t issued a walk in his last 14 innings. Just as encouraging is that Eovaldi hasn’t allowed a home run in his last 27 innings pitched. That’s three whole games.

Even though the Astros lineup is deep and will make you work, this could be a tough matchup for it. Houston ranks 15th in xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) against pitches above 96 mph from righties this season (per Statcast).

I also think Keuchel can do a job for us in this one. The Red Sox have been mediocre against southpaws this season. They rank 17th in xwOBA against left-handed sinkerballers this season and they’re facing one of the best in the business in this game.

This weird matchup could end up being a peculiar pitching duel, and right now it seems to be flying under the radar.

The Bet: Under 8.5 (-125)

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