Windy Forecasts Creating Betting Value for Sunday’s MLB Slate
Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
Editor’s note: The game got postponed.
What factors do you consider when handicapping a baseball game? The most common are starting pitchers, injuries, line movement and public action. However, many casual bettors overlook the effect weather can have on a game.
If you are betting the over/under, check the wind first. Strong gusts can change the trajectory of a ball from what we would expect under normal conditions. Wind blowing out can turn a fly ball into a home run or wind blowing in can knock a dinger into a long out.
Using the Bet Labs software, I’ve identified a game (2:15 p.m. ET) on Sunday’s slate where wind will be a factor and bettors can profit.
When you think of wind, speed comes to mind. How hard the wind is blowing matters, but direction is important too. Breezy conditions alone are not enough to find an edge betting the total. For example, the under when the wind is blowing 5 mph or stronger is 10,028-9802-1015 (50.6%) since 2005.
When looking at the direction the wind is blowing, it becomes clear where the edge is betting windy games.
Since 2005, in games with average wind speeds of 5 mph or greater blowing in from center the under is 764-613-76 (55.5%). This betting system has a large sample (over 1,400 games), consistent results (only one losing season in the last 13 years) and a simple theory that makes sense.
Strong sustained winds blowing in can turn home runs on a normal day into doubles or even outs leading to less scoring. Here is a game today that could be impacted by wind blowing in:
Sunday under that fits this trend:
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox (2:15 p.m. ET): The forecast calls for average wind speeds of 9 mph. The total opened 9 at Pinnacle but has been bet down to 8.5 behind a Steam Move bet signal, an indicator of sharp money.
Forecasts can change, be sure to check our updating weather page for projected wind speeds in each contest.
Pictured: Kansas City Royals Mike Moustakas