The Washington Nationals (37-52) and Boston Red Sox (45-45) will meet in the MLB on Sunday afternoon. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on NESN.
Boston is a -270 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Washington is +220 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8 total runs.
Continue below for my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Nationals predictions for Sunday, July 6, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction
- Red Sox vs Nationals pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-105)
My Nationals vs. Red Sox best bet is on the first five innings under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Nationals Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -160 | 8 -120o / +100u | -270 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +130 | 8 -120o / +100u | +220 |
Red Sox vs Nationals MLB Preview, Picks
This MLB first five innings system, titled "Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)," is built around early-game environments where oddsmakers and sharp bettors anticipate limited scoring, which happens to be the case in today's matchup between the Red Sox and Nationals.
The foundation starts with a low closing total — between 3.5 and 6.5 — indicating a strong pitcher’s duel or poor hitting conditions.
If the full game total has moved down between half a run and one run from open to close, it signals smart money pushing the market toward the under.
The model further refines this edge by requiring the juice on the under to remain within a sharp range, typically between -149 and -120, avoiding inflated pricing that could distort value.
Games played in modest wind conditions — between four and nine miles per hour — are included, as they often suppress offense without triggering dramatic public reaction.
By isolating games across the past three seasons and targeting first-half unders in tightly lined, downward-trending markets, this system captures value where the market signals defensive control without overreaction.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-105)
