The New York Mets (52-38) and New York Yankees (48-41) will meet in the MLB on Sunday afternoon. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on SNY.
Continue below for my Subway Series betting preview and Yankees vs Mets predictions for Sunday, July 6, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Yankees vs Mets Predictions, Picks
- Yankees vs Mets picks: Yankees -1.5 (-125, DraftKings)
My Mets vs. Yankees best bet is on the Yankees to cover the run line, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Mets Odds, Lines
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 9 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 9 -110o / -110u | +158 |
Yankees vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (NYY) | Stat | RHP Chris Devenski (Opener, NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.13/3.33 | ERA /xERA | 3.38/2.67 |
| 3.02/3.24 | FIP / xFIP | 1.78/3.44 |
| 0.94 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 18.5 | K-BB% | 19 |
| 52.7 | GB% | 40 |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 103 | Location+ | 114 |
Yankees vs Mets Preview, Predictions
Yankees Betting Preview
It's rare to see the Yankees be outslugged in a series, but that's what the Mets have done the past two days. However, with the Mets' pitching staff running on fumes, we should see the Bronx Bombers live up to their nickname this afternoon.
The Yankees roll out the top lineup in the American League as they lead the majors in xWOBACON and barrel rate. The bats are as potent as they come, and the conditions at Citi Field have been hitter-friendly all weekend; today will be no different.
The Mets are asking for another heroic effort from their bullpen and a "spot starter" in Brandon Waddell. Chris Devenski will open the game for the Metropolitans, but Wadell is expected to provide bulk relief from the second inning on.
Waddell has looked solid in his seven big league appearances this season but is due for sizable regression. He's allowed a great deal of hard contact, most of which has been in the air.
Waddell has also stranded 87 percent of runners, which is unsustainable and means the Yankees should capitalize when they create traffic on the basepaths this afternoon.
Mets Betting Preview
On the other side of this matchup, you can't count out the Mets lineup as much as the oddsmakers are in this one, but it's safe to say they are in for a quieter afternoon than yesterday.
The Mets' bats have begun to heat up with the weather, and this series is evidence of that. However, standing in their way of a sweep is Max Fried. Fried has been dynamite for the Yankees as he enters this outing with a 2.13 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and no real indicators of regression.
Fried has excelled at generating soft contact on the ground this season, and that will be the key to his success this afternoon. While that is easier said than done against this lineup, we have already seen him throw six innings of two-run ball while striking out eight back in May.
Even if the Mets do have a better game plan this time around, expect the lethal to contain them.
Yankees vs Mets Prediction, Best Bet
After how the first two games of the series went, the Yankees' moneyline price seems shocking, but it illustrates just how barren the Mets' pitching staff has become.
Not only have there been injuries to the starting rotation, but the usage of their high-leverage relievers in this series has put them in a difficult spot to succeed. We should see the Yankees' bats start hot and not slow down.
On the other side, it will be interesting to see if the Mets can adjust against Fried in this second meeting, but they are likely not going to overcome the hole dug by their pitching this afternoon.
Back the Yankees to salvage the series decisively and cover the run line.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-125, DraftKings)
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
Take the Yankees to cover the spread.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total in this matchup.
Yankees vs Mets Betting Trends
Yankees vs Mets Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. |
| Date: | Sunday, July 6 |
| Time: | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | YES, SNY |
