The Cleveland Guardians (40-47) and Detroit Tigers (56-34) will meet in the MLB on Sunday afternoon. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSDET.
After two low-scoring games in this series (2-1 and 1-0, both Tigers victories), expect a third one today with Tarik Skubal and Gavin Williams on the mound for Detroit and Cleveland, respectively.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Guardians predictions below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Guardians Prediction
- Tigers vs Guardians picks: Under 7.5 Runs (-110, BetMGM)
My Guardians vs. Tigers best bet is on the Under, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Guardians Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +110 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Tigers vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 4.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.15 / 2.45 | ERA / xERA | 3.86 / 4.58 |
| 1.98 / 2.35 | FIP / xFIP | 4.77 /4.40 |
| 0.83 | WHIP | 1.46 |
| 30.0 | K-BB% | 8.8 |
| 41.6 | GB% | 44.2 |
| 117 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 107 | Location+ | 92 |
Tigers vs Guardians Preview, Picks
Tarik Skubal is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, and his numbers continue to improve. The Detroit ace has a 1.28 ERA in his last seven games, with four scoreless outings among those starts.
Last year's American League Cy Young winner already faced Cleveland this season and threw a gem. On May 25, Skubal pitched a complete game with no runs and only two hits allowed while striking out 13 Guardians.
In his previous outing, on June 29, Skubal also had a fantastic game against the Twins. He gave up one hit and no runs through seven innings with 13 Ks.
Cleveland's starter today, Gavin Williams, should also contribute to a low-score result.
His splits point toward a good outing since he performs well at home, with a 3.72 ERA compared to a 4.02 on the road, but his day games are spectacular: 2.27 ERA, more than three points better than his ERA at night (5.48).
The Guardians offense is 26th overall in wRC+ with 86, does worse against left-handed pitchers (28th, 73), and has been plain awful for the last seven days: 29th overall with 53 wRC+.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation, using the Series Unders: Off Low-Scoring Games system.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Series Unders: Off Low-Scoring Games system focuses on regular-season MLB matchups where both teams are entering the second or later game of a series after producing minimal offense in their previous outing.
When teams come off one- or two-game streaks of low scoring, particularly early to mid-series, the market can overcorrect or undervalue continued offensive stagnation.
This model anticipates that trend to persist—betting on the under when recent results and situational rhythm point to a slow-paced, low-output environment.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110, BetMGM)
