Friday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hammering One Dog, Two Totals
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Wiseguys split their moneyline plays yesterday, but suffered an epic bad beat push with their Dodgers-Diamondbacks Under 7. Arizona led, 2-1, entering the 8th inning, but then Los Angeles scored four runs (two on wild pitches) en route to a 5-2 win. Pro Players will always take a push over a loss, but just like that first love that got away, the painful moose memories never fade.
After analyzing Friday’s slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05, 10:07 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 1:45 p.m. ET
Philadelphia Phillies (+123) at Washington Nationals
7:05 p.m. ET
Washington has won five in a row, so naturally the public is all over the home favorite Nationals tonight. However, despite receiving 75% of bets, Bryce Harper and Company have have fallen from -143 to -133. Why would the books drop the Nats line to give public bettors a better number? Because sharps got down hard on Philadelphia, triggering market-wide reverse line movement. Wiseguys at the Greek hit Philly +122 and then pro players at Sportsbook hammered Philly +120. This heavy sharp action has caused Philadelphia to fall from +132 to +123. The Phils are also getting a higher share of dollars (37%) than bets (25%), another sign that smart money is on the road divisional dog.
Toronto Blue Jays – Tampa Bay Rays Under 8
7:10 p.m. ET
The Jays are coming off a doubleheader yesterday in which they plated 17 total runs (and gave up 24). So it’s no surprise that the public is heavy on this Over. However, despite 70% of bets going Over, the total has remained frozen at 8. Normally the books will raise the total in this situation to limit their risk. Instead, we’ve actually seen the total juice move from 8 Under -110 to 8 Under -115, indicating Under liability. Sharps at CRIS and BetOnline both hammered the Under 8. The Under is also the top bets vs. dollars total discrepancy play of the night: only 32% of bets are going Under, but it accounts for more than 90% of dollars.
Los Angeles Angels – Seattle Mariners Under 8.5
10:10 p.m. ET
The Angels torched the Orioles, 12-3, last night and now they face Mike Leake (6.48 ERA). The public sees an easy Over. But not the sharps. In the most lopsided total play on the night, 91% of bets going Over, yet the total juice has moved from 8.5 -110 on both sides to 8.5 Under -115. This indicates liability on the Under, with the next move likely down to 8. Wiseguys at Pinnacle, ABC and BetUS all hammered the Under 8.5, triggering a trio of steam and reverse line moves across the market.
This Under also matches a profitable Bet Labs System: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+168.81 units since 2005).
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Pictured: Seattle Mariners relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) reacts after a strike out to end a 4-1 victory against the Oakland Athletics