Monday Sharp Report: Wiseguy Action Moving 3 MLB Lines
Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
Mother Nature is angry today. There are already two MLB postponements with a few more likely on the way. As a result, sharps don’t have many matchups to choose from, so they’ll be treading lightly and picking their spots tonight.
After analyzing Monday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:10, 7:40 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3 p.m. ET
Texas Rangers – Tampa Bay Rays Under 8
7:10 p.m. ET
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes bet split on this Tropicana Field total. The Over is getting 54% of bets, but the Under is getting more than 90% of dollars, making the Under the top bet vs. dollar discrepancy play of the day. After opening at 8.5, the total is down to 8, signaling sharp reverse line movement. Wiseguys triggered a pair of bet signals on the Under at JustBet and Pinnacle, and we haven’t seen any conflicting plays on the Over. The Under 8 is juiced up to -120, indicating it may fall even further to 7.5.
Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee Brewers Under 8
7:40 p.m. ET
This is almost a carbon copy of the Rangers-Rays total. The public is on the Over (54%), but the Under is getting the overwhelming majority of dollars (89%). Wiseguys steamed the Under 8.5 at BetOnline and Bovada, causing the total to drop from 8.5 to 8 around the market. An added bonus for sharp Under bettors: the Miller Park roof is expected to be closed tonight, which will negate the 14-mph winds blowing out to center.
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (+101)
10:10 p.m. ET
Astros bettors took a bath on Sunday Night. Nearly 70% of bettors laid the massive -320 on Justin Verlander and lost big time as Bartolo Colon and the Rangers (+281) pulled off the biggest upset of the young season. Gambler’s Fallacy says Houston “must” come back and win tonight. Sharps aren’t buying it.
James Paxton and the Mariners are only getting 38% of bets but 71% of the dollars, indicating smart money is on their side. Meanwhile, Seattle has fallen from +110 to +101. Why would the Mariners’ payout get smaller if the majority of bets are on Houston? Because wiseguys got down hard on Seattle, creating big liability. Sharps hammered the M’s +107 at Pinnacle and +106 at BetOnline, causing market-wise reverse line movement in their favor.
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Pictured: Seattle Mariners first baseman Taylor Motter celebrates with center fielder Dee Gordon after hitting a solo home run against the Oakland Athletics