It’s been a disappointing start to the 2018 MLB season for sharp contrarian bettors. So far, teams getting less than 40% of moneyline bets have gone 36-62 (36.7%), -7.52 units. The public is cashing and the books are taking a beating. Wiseguys know to ride it out. The house always wins. Regression is coming.
After analyzing Tuesday’s massive 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05, 8:15, 8:40 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 4 p.m. ET
Toronto Blue Jays – Baltimore Orioles Under 8.5
7:05 p.m. ET
Nearly 80% of bets are taking the Over in this AL East showdown, making it the most lopsided total play of the day. However, despite the heavy Over betting, the line hasn’t risen beyond 8.5 (earlier today, it briefly fell to 8 before settling back to 8.5).
This “line freeze” indicates Under liability, with books reluctant to give out an extra half run to sharp Under bettors. Wiseguys hit Under 8.5 four separate times across the offshore market, highlighted by the big dogs at Pinnacle.