Tuesday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Pounding Loaded MLB Slate
D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
It’s been a disappointing start to the 2018 MLB season for sharp contrarian bettors. So far, teams getting less than 40% of moneyline bets have gone 36-62 (36.7%), -7.52 units. The public is cashing and the books are taking a beating. Wiseguys know to ride it out. The house always wins. Regression is coming.
After analyzing Tuesday’s massive 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05, 8:15, 8:40 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 4 p.m. ET
Toronto Blue Jays – Baltimore Orioles Under 8.5
7:05 p.m. ET
Nearly 80% of bets are taking the Over in this AL East showdown, making it the most lopsided total play of the day. However, despite the heavy Over betting, the line hasn’t risen beyond 8.5 (earlier today, it briefly fell to 8 before settling back to 8.5).
This “line freeze” indicates Under liability, with books reluctant to give out an extra half run to sharp Under bettors. Wiseguys hit Under 8.5 four separate times across the offshore market, highlighted by the big dogs at Pinnacle.
Cincinnati Reds – Philadelphia Phillies Under 7.5
7:05 p.m. ET
Pros and Joes are on totally different sides of this total. More than 70% of bets are taking the Over, but more than 80% of dollars are on the Under — a massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy you don’t see too often. Wiseguys hit Under 8 at Greek and CRIS, causing the market to drop the total to 7.5.
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals (-100)
8:15 p.m. ET
The Royals crushed Seattle, 10-0, last night and Gambler’s Fallacy says Seattle will bounce back and win tonight, especially with King Felix on the mound. Sharps disagree. Only 31% of bets are taking Kansas City, yet they account for 59% of dollars. The line has also moved majorly in KC’s favor (+120 to -100). Wiseguys at the Greek steamed KC +120 and then sharps at SIA hit KC +105, causing the line to plummet in their favor.
San Diego Padres (+140) at Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
San Diego rewarded sharp bettors last night, upsetting Colorado, 7-6. They closed with 33% bets, 60% dollars and had reverse line movement (+182 to +170). Sharps are going back to the well tonight. The Fathers are only getting 40% bets (but 51% dollars) and have fallen from +150 to +140. The public doesn’t think San Diego can win again, but the wiseguys aren’t afraid.
Oakland Athletics (+114) at Los Angeles Dodgers
10:10 p.m. ET
The Dodgers have stumbled out of the gate this season (3-6, -4.53 units) but public bettors are still on their side. However, despite receiving 63% of bets, the Dodgers have fallen from -145 to -123, indicating sharp reverse line movement on Oakland. The A’s are getting only 37% of bets but they account for more than 60% of dollars, indicating smart money on the road dog in this California Interleague Civil War.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: The Red Sox are getting 80% of moneyline tickets as -120 favorites against the Rays, but the line drops to -110. That’s a sure sign that sharp money is on Tampa Bay.
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Pictured: Dodgers Chase Utley (26) gets high fives from his teammates after hitting a home run against San Francisco