Wednesday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Doubling Down on Phillies-Braves
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Pro players went 1-1 with their moneyline plays last night, but endured an epic bad beat on the Dodgers-Padres Under (7.5). Los Angeles led, 3-1, entering the bottom of the 9th but Kenley Jansen blew the save. The Dodgers scored 4 runs in the 12th to win, 7-3. On to the next!
After analyzing Wednesday’s 13-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:10, 7:35 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3:15 p.m. ET
Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins (+104)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Twins dropped Game 1 of the Puerto Rico series, 5-1, last night, but sharps expect them to bounce back tonight. Minnesota is getting a slight majority of bets (57%), but it accounts for an overwhelming majority of dollars (83%). Since opening, the Twins have moved from +123 to +104. Normally, 57% of bets won’t move a line 20 cents, so we know sharp action caused this line movement. Goodfellas at Pinnacle steamed Berrios and Company +120 late last night, which is largely responsible for the line plummeting in their favor.
When teams get steamed at Pinnacle (arguably the sharpest offshore book) with no conflicting steam on the opponent, they’ve produced +129.63 units since 2005.
Philadelphia Phillies (-101) at Atlanta Braves and Over 9
7:35 p.m. ET
Wiseguys are doubling down on the rubber match of this NL East showdown. On the moneyline, they’re eyeing the Phillies. Philadelphia is only getting 42% of bets but 87% of dollars, making them one of the top bet vs. dollar discrepancy plays of the day. Sharps at CRIS steamed Philly late last night, causing the Atlanta line to fall from -117 to -109. At Pinnacle, Philadelphia has fallen from +106 to -102.
We’ve also noticed a plethora of sharp action on the Over. It’s only getting 50% of bets but 70% of dollars. Sharps at YouWager and Pinnacle steamed the Over 8.5, causing it to rise to 9 across the market. The juice is heavy on the Under 9 (-120), signaling possible buyback down to 8.5.
Boston Red Sox – Los Angeles Angels Under 8
10:10 p.m. ET
The Red Sox crushed Shohei Ohtani and the Angels, 10-1, last night. The public saw Mookie Betts pound three homers and naturally says “Over” again tonight. Not the sharps. Even though nearly 70% are taking the Over, the total has fallen from 8.5 to 8. Sharps caused this reverse line movement by hammering Under 8.5 at four different books throughout the day. The Under also enjoys a profitable bet vs. dollar discrepancy (+16%), another smart money indicator.
This Under is also a match for a profitable Bet Labs system: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
Pictured: Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) hits a home run in the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels