Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Preview, Prediction: Fade Jake Odorizzi in First 5 (September 1)

Astros vs. Mariners Odds

The Astros and Mariners have played two low scoring games so far in Seattle. Houston won the first game 4-3 after an 8th inning comeback against the Seattle bullpen and the Mariners took the second game 4-0 after a late grand slam.

And in game two, Lance McCullers and Yusei Kikuchi had a pitchers duel that was settled once more by the bullpens.

The final game of the series is on Wednesday afternoon as Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for Houston against Logan Gilbert for the Mariners.

Odorizzi is the Houston's fifth starter and their most vulnerable in the rotation, while Gilbert has generally shined as a hard-throwing rookie this season, though he has had a rough last few outings.

The Mariners' pitching edge gives them value in the first five innings of this game, even though Houston does have the much better lineup.

Houston Astros

Odorizzi hasn't been a good starting pitcher anywhere he's pitched and his numbers this year reinforce that career trend.

The veteran right-hander has a .809 OPS allowed on the road, a 5.13 ERA and 11 home runs over 47.1 innings pitched. His 4.95 FIP is the worst of his career in the years he's been a regular starter and his 4.79 xERA suggests he's been as bad as those terrible surface level numbers suggest.

He has been below average in every Statcast pitching metric, especially in xwOBA, spin rates and velocity. Odorizzi's lack of an effective third pitch hinders his ability to get through a lineup.

Houston hammered the rookie Gilbert in his only start against them, but the Astros' lineup has been in a bit of a slog over the last week. Their strikeout rate is up, their walk rate is down and — despite an improved BABIP — their offense has just a .735 OPS in the last week. That's worse than their season-long numbers.

And while the Astros are good against all pitching this year, their splits are better against lefties.

Seattle Mariners

The Astros' lineup may have destroyed Gilbert in their last meeting, but the right-hander has been in a terrible run of bad luck and regression in recent weeks. He hasn't been nearly as bad as the underlying numbers suggest.

Gilbert carries a 5.44 ERA into this game on Wednesday, but his high strikeout rate and low walk rate suggest it shouldn't be anywhere near five. His xERA is 4.03 and his FIP is 3.78. He does allow a fair bit of hard contact, but his 4.51 K/BB rate and .317 BABIP imply that he's been more unlucky than bad in recent starts.

I'm not concerned about Gilbert's recent outings on the mound because they're not reflective of his true quality as a rookie pitcher. His lack of a third pitch could hurt him but the Mariners are unlikely to let him go through the lineup a third time.

Astros-Mariners Pick

This pick is all about the starting pitcher matchup, where Odorizzi has consistently been overpriced all season. He's been too expensive, especially on the road, where his surface and underlying numbers have been very mediocre. Compare this to Gilbert for Seattle, who has the stuff and past success this year to limit the Astros' excellent lineup and overcome Houston's edge in hitting.

Seattle's bullpen has seen some regression in recent weeks and I like to take the bullpens out of the picture whenever applicable, so look to play the Mariners in the first five innings in this matchup. Houston's offense might eventually break out and score in this series, but it won't be early against Gilbert.

Pick: Mariners first five innings +0.5 (-120 or better)