Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: The Angle to Consider for Yankees-Orioles

Betting odds: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

• Over/Under: 8.5
• First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET (ESPN)
• Probable Pitchers: Luis Severino (16-6, 3.28 ERA) vs. Dylan Bundy (7-12, 5.31 ERA)
  

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Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 84-56-3, +22 units

Yesterday’s Result: Rangers-Giants Under 8.5, Perez vs. Suarez (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

They don’t get any closer than yesterday’s Rangers-Giants under 8.5 triumph, as we were on the ropes at several points late before cashing by the narrowest of margins. Let’s keep it going with this Sunday night play.

This week’s Sunday night matchup has many questioning how the Orioles qualified for such a broadcast this late in the season opposite a somewhat overrated Yankees squad. But at the very least, there is an interesting betting opportunity on tap.

When the Bronx Bombers go for the four-game sweep at Camden Yards,
they’ll be doing so behind their ace Luis Severino, who appears to be back in dominant form based on his most recent start.

Though Severino only went five innings and gave up two runs, the outing still represented a sign of progress. The All-Star right-hander had been tagged for at least three runs or more in five consecutive starts previously. It was also his first start not allowing a homer since July 1.

So, can we expect to see the version of Severino that was regularly dominating and had a sizable stake in the American League Cy Young race? For tonight, at least, I believe we can.

Severino has nice career numbers against the O’s, limiting them to a 3.33 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in seven starts (and two relief appearances), spanning 46 innings. He’s also amassed 45 strikeouts within that span.

Perhaps another determining factor in helping reel in this under is the fact that Severino will be pitching on this week’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast. This is his sixth career assignment pitching on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, and in four of the previous five — including two this season against the Red Sox and Mets — he held his opponents to two runs or fewer.

Overall, Severino has manufactured a terrific 2.01 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in these Sunday night assignments across 31.1 innings, to go with 40 strikeouts compared to seven walks. Thus, it’s pretty clear that the four-year veteran looks forward to shining in prime time.

His opponent, Dylan Bundy, doesn’t appear to really shine much at all upon first glance, but he’s been better than that 7-12 record and 5.31 ERA he currently holds.

Evidence of that includes his 4.40 xFIP, which measures an expected ERA while taking into account a major league average homerun-to-flyball ratio. He’s been unlucky in that area to this point in the season, as he leads all of baseball in homeruns allowed with 33 — a whopping 10 dingers have been spread across his last four trips to the mound.

Bundy is capable of improving upon that, however, and while the Yankees aren’t the most ideal opponent for someone who struggles with keeping the ball in the yard, the former No. 4 overall draft pick may still be able to get by via the strikeout.

He’s notched 9.29 K/9 up to this point, easily a career-best mark, and with the Yanks logging the third-most strikeouts as a team per game in the AL, this could be an area where Bundy takes advantage.

Either way, I expect Severino to lead the way and keep the O’s at bay. As long as Bundy doesn’t get rocked, I feel confident in my bet.

See Matt’s Bet for Sunday’s Yankees-Orioles Game in Our Free App: