Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
Betting Odds: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
- Mariners: -106 (Felix Hernandez)
- Rangers: -104 (Bartolo Colon)
- Over/Under: 11 (-115o/-105u)
- First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
My bets to watch have been particularly streaky in August. After winning four in a row, the Reds have now pushed my losing streak to three in this series. I’d like to thank Homer Bailey for looking a lot like Homer Bailey.
For today’s topic, I’m focusing on something that’s anything but contrarian: scoring runs in Texas. Everyone knows that weather factors create conditions in Arlington that are ideal for scoring, and as a result, totals in that ballpark are the closest things to Coors Field we see outside of Colorado.
Overs in Texas this year have been particularly profitable. The over in Rangers home games, per Bet Labs, has been a robust 34-22-3 (60.7%). The totals in July were all in double-digits except for one closing at 9.5, and you have to go back to April and May for totals consistently below 10.
Tuesday’s total is at 11, so while that number may initially seem high, it basically matches what we know about Texas and over/unders for the better part of the summer. And not all 10’s and 11’s are created equal. The factors in play specifically for this game indicate that there may be even more run-scoring than normal.
To begin with … the starters. Felix Hernandez was on the disabled list with a sore back, and has made three starts since returning, none of which were particularly impressive. In fact, he may be in danger of even losing his spot in the starting rotation. None of this is very energizing for making a case that he’ll pitch well in this game, especially in these conditions. Add the fact that the Rangers offense has been particularly good recently (top 10 in the majors in OPS the last seven days) and it’s a cocktail for run-scoring.
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Bartolo Colon, meanwhile, has been getting smashed for about two months now. After having a particularly effective May, his ERA is about 7 since June 1, and he’s allowed three or more runs in each of his last six starts. There is nothing about this start specifically that portends success.
Aside from the weather, the other factor in play here is the status of both bullpens that just pitched a long extra-inning game Monday night (won by Seattle, 4-3). Both Alex Colome and Edwin Diaz have pitched in back-to-back games for the Mariners, so their availability is in doubt. Meanwhile, the Rangers used a very large chunk of their bullpen last night, and their long-relief guy is Matt Moore, someone you’d be dying to get in this game if you have the over.
This isn’t breaking news: Felix + Colon + Texas = Runs. It’s an equation most know and can follow. But the state of both pitchers, the offenses and the bullpens make runs even more likely than usual.
The Bet: Over 11