Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Friday, October 31.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Friday, I preview World Series Game 6 between the Blue Jays and Dodgers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Friday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — World Series Game 6
World Series Futures and Props
Before getting into my projections and bets for Wednesday's World Series Game 5, I want to provide my updated series projection and analyze potential futures bets or props for the 2025 World Series.
Toronto's Game 5 win was monumental, moving their championship projection from 36.2% to 68.3%—while the betting market pushed them from roughly +150 (40% implied) to as high as -250 (71.4% implied), representing increases of more than 30%.
The Blue Jays currently sit between -230 and -250 to win one of their two remaining home games and capture their first World Series since 1993, with the Dodgers are between +190 and +205 to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees.
As a result, I don't project an edge on the series line at current odds, and the best number I saw on Toronto to win in seven games or 4-3 (+300) fell just short of my projection (+305).
Blue Jays vs Dodgers World Series Game 6 Picks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Kevin Gausman
Yoshinobu Yamamoto posted a dominant effort in Game 2 of the World Series (9 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K) – his second consecutive complete game, following his win in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Brewers (9 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K).
He has proven himself one of the best starting pitchers on the planet, while ranking second behind Paul Skenes (2.59) and just ahead of Tarik Skubal (2.74) among qualified starters, with a 2.73 xERA in 2025. He also ranked sixth in both xFIP and CSW%, and 11th in K-BB% this season.
His only flaws are early hard contact and walks (8.6%, 38th percentile). Yamamoto has permitted a career .659 OPS the first time through the order but adjusts as well as any starter, and has pitched to a .509 OPS the second time through and .527 OPS the third time through the opposing batting order, respectively.
For example, he was extremely splitter-heavy the first time through the order in Game 2 against Toronto, refocused on his fastball the second time through the order, then deployed his cutter and curveball for the third time through, before reintroducing his splitter for the rare fourth appearance.
Kevin Gausman (6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 6 K) also pitched exceptionally well in Game 2 – with a 38% CSW% – but he may have been too efficient (82 pitches) before his seventh-inning blowup, permitting a pair of solo shots to Will Smith and Max Muncy.
Gausman had a bounceback season after a down 2024 campaign (4.82 xERA, 4.22 xFIP), but he still projects about three-quarters of a run to a full run worse than Yamamoto, in terms of a season-long ERA.
Moreover, although the Dodgers struggled in Game 5 against Trey Yesavage, Gausman offers the same pitch mix (fastball, splitter, slider) from a less unique arm angle.
I'd expect George Springer – who would have pinch run in Game 5, had Bo Bichette reached base in the ninth inning – to return to Toronto's lineup for Game 6, and for Bichette to displace Isiah Kiner-Falefa at second base.
The move would upgrade Toronto offensively, but downgrade their team defense; even an injured George Springer (.417 xwOBA, 166 wRC+) is a substantial offensive upgrade over IKF (.266 xwOBA, 75 wRC+), but an injured Bichette (-12 DRS, -13 OAA at shortstop) is a much lesser defender than IKF (+5 DRS, -1 OAA).
I project the Dodgers to maintain their lineup from Game 6—although you could see Andy Pages (4-for-50 in the postseason) back in Center Field, or Tommy Edman in center with Miguel Rojas (100 wRC+, +7 DRS, +5 OAA) in the middle infield.
On paper, these offenses have not performed all that differently in the World Series; the Dodgers have walked more (11.1% vs. 9.5%) and hit for more power (.153 ISO vs. .128), while the Blue Jays have avoided strikeouts (19% vs. 25.3%). Still, the teams have produced virtually identical xwOBA marks (.327 vs. .323) – the Dodgers have just been a touch more unlucky, with a .236 BABIP and .279 wOBA, compared to marks of .297 and .327, respectively, for the Blue Jays.
Yamamoto has not shown a noticeable home/road or righty/lefty split early in his carrer; Gausman, however, is slightly better against right-handed hitters (xFIP about a third of a run lower, and K-BB% a few points higher throughout his career), and Ohtani, Freeman, and Muncy all rank as plus hitters against splitters (Edman, thier lone switch-hitter is below-average).
In fact, the Dodgers have the highest pitch value stats (on a per pitch basis) against splitters over the past two seasons; Toronto ranks second, which explains why Yamamoto may have put it away midway in his last outing. Addison Barger, Andres Gimenez, Nathan Lukes, and Dautlton Varsho have handled the splitter best among their position players. Still, only Varsho and Barger also finished in the black against curveballs and cutters, respectively.
The Dodgers bullpen has performed better throughout the playoffs (3.71 xFIP, 14.7% K-BB%) than the Blue Jays' bullpen (4.42 xFIP, 15.1% K-BB%), but both units have struggled in the World Series (4.49 xFIP, 9.5% K-BB% for Los Angeles; 4.68 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB% for Toronto)
The Dodgers used both Anthony Banda and Blake Treinen on three consecutive days in Games 3, 4, and 5 (and also used Banda in Game 1), while Edgardo Henriquez and Jack Dreyer have each pitched twice in the series. Roki Sasaki has only pitched once (29 pitches in Game 3), and could be available for up to two innings in the right scenario, along with Justin Wrobleski and Emmet Sheehan in multi-inning stints.
The Blue Jays have deployed Louie Varland, Jeff Hofman, Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher, and Seranthony Dominguez three times each through five games, and lefty Eric Lauer (68 pitches in Game 2) could remain out until a potential Game 7. As a result, the Dodgers' best hitters have gotten several looks at Toronto's four best high-leverage arms, and the cumulative effect could prove crucial in the final two games of this series.
I projected the Dodgers as -129 favorites (56.4% implied) for Game 6, and I set the total at 7.75 runs. As a result, I don't project an edge on either side of the moneyline or total; however, I would consider betting the Blue Jays at +140, or the Over 7.5 at plus money.
I projected the Dodgers as -151 favorites (60.2% implied) for the first five innings (F5) and set the F5 total at 3.97 runs; and as a result, I don't project an edge on the first half of Game 6, either.
Action Labs projects an edge on both Yamamoto Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-127) and Gausman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160) compared to projections of 5.2 and 4.9, respectively. Their combined outs, hits, and walks prop has Yamamoto facing 25 batters—and Gausman facing 22.
Yamamoto owns a career 29.1% strikeout rate, but Toronto's offense has stayed below 20% for virtually the entire season. If you assume a 25% strikeout rate for Game 6, that puts Yamamoto at 6.25 strikeouts through 25 hitters, but if you lower the projected rate to 20%, he'd finish at five through the same number of hitters.
Gasman owns a career 24.5% strikeout rate (24.4% in 2025), a touch higher than the Dodgers' 2025 second-half result (21.7%) but a touch lower than their postseason mark. Rojas (career 12.4% strikeout rate) or Call (18.1% career) playing over Pages (22.8% career) makes a difference to the projection, but if you assume Gausman matches his career average, he'd finish with 5.4 strikeouts. However, if you use the Dodgers' second-half rate, I'd lower the projection to 4.7.
Given the Dodgers' shaky bullpen – and the likelihood that Yamamoto turns over the Blue Jays order three times- in addition to most of the market sitting at plus money on Gasuman's under at 4.5, I'm inclined to pass on both strikeout props.
However, I'd project Yamamoto to give up just 4.1 hits through 25 batters, or 4.45 through 27, with the caveat that he's likelier to leave earlier than that if he's given up enough hits to get into a jam. As a result, I would bet Yamamoto Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-139) down to 4.5 (+110).
Lastly, concerning Shohei Ohtani, I'd point out that the Blue Jays were far more willing to pitch to him with a lead in Game 6; still, that should change in a tied game and if Ohtani has an opportunity to drive in runners; our Action Labs projection put his fair odds at roughly 69% (-223 implied) to finish Game 6 without an RBI; bet that prop to -200, at a discount to his no homer prop.
Regardless of Friday's Game 6 result, this will be my final written preview of the 2025 MLB season – and I appreciate you following along.
To reiterate, my projections for Saturday's game will be available both in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
However, as a preliminary number, I'd have the Dodgers in the neighborhood of -127 favorites (55.9% implied) with a projected total of 8.1 runs in a potential Game 7 – with Tyler Glasnow facing Max Scherzer, and Shohei Ohtani either available in relief behind or as an opener ahead of Glasnow.
Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (bet to 4.5 +110) | Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 RBI (bet to -200)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for World Series Game 6
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Sides and Totals
- N/A
Game 5 Player Props
- Shohei Ohtani, Under 0.5 RBI (-165, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -200
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-139, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to 4.5 (+110)
Series Props and Futures
- N/A
