Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Is Wei-Yin Chen the Real Deal at Marlins Park?

Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Is Wei-Yin Chen the Real Deal at Marlins Park? article feature image

Betting odds: Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins

  • Over/Under: 7.5
  • First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Probable Pitchers: Marco Estrada (7-10, 5.18 ERA) vs. Wei-Yin Chen (5-9, 4.91 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 88-57-4, +24.9 units

Yesterday’s Result: Mets-Giants Under 7, Wheeler vs. Suarez (“Push”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

There are no words that can do justice to last night’s latest bad beat, as our Mets-Giants Under 7 wager was 1-0 in the bottom eighth with six outs to go and only 2-0 when only one more out was needed to escape that fateful frame. All we can say is at least it resulted in a push instead of a loss. Let’s move on to Saturday’s action.

Whenever he toes the rubber at Marlins Park, Wei-Yin Chen is really something else — literally.

Sure, his stats on the season don’t look pretty, as the former Baltimore Oriole is 5-9 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. That latter number is even the highest such mark of his seven-year career.

However, that’s largely thanks to his poor work away from home, as Chen is 1-6 with a disastrous 9.35 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 10 road outings.

By contrast, though, he’s been nothing short of splendid in Miami, stringing together a 1.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 11 starts at Marlins Park. That’s actually the third-best home ERA in the majors, behind only Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom among qualified starters.

Chen has been so consistent at home, in fact, that he’s surrendered more than three earned runs in Miami only once all year. There’s a fine chance he can keep that run going, as Toronto is 24th in baseball in team batting average (.235) opposite left-handed pitching.

The Blue Jays have exhibited some power (.415 slugging percentage) with a southpaw on the hill, but that’s an area where Chen thrives in when working in Miami’s pitcher-friendly ballpark. He’s served up only five long balls in his 63 innings pitched at home.

While Chen is coming off a season-best 10-strikeout performance his last time out, the other pitcher in this interleague matchup, Marco Estrada, will be looking to bounce back after a rough recent assignment against the Phillies.

Luckily, Estrada typically pitches better in his next effort after allowing five or more runs in a start, so that’s something we’ll try to take advantage of.

The real reason to get pumped about Estrada in this one is that he feels right at home whenever taking the hill in a National League ballpark.

Estrada, a former NL pitcher with the Nationals and Brewers from 2008-14, has been outstanding in his road interleague assignments since joining the Blue Jays three years ago.

Listen to this: in Estrada’s six such outings with Toronto, all have clocked in as quality starts. Collectively, the 35-year-old has produced a 2.79 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in these spots. If he can turn in a performance tonight even just slightly similar to that, it could a long way in helping manufacture an under victory.

Based on the current juice, you’re better off waiting until first pitch before getting the bet in to see if it ticks up to 8. Even at 7.5, I’ll still be on it.

Play: UNDER 7.5/8