The Toronto Blue Jays host the San Diego Padres on May 21, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Padres.TV and SN1.
The Padres enter Wednesday on a four-game losing streak after dropping the series opener to Toronto. San Diego has scored just three runs over this losing stretch — can the offense get right?
Find my Padres vs Blue Jays prediction and preview for Wednesday below.
San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Picks
- Padres vs Blue Jays Pick: Over 9 (+100 · Play to -105)
My Blue Jays vs. Padres best bet is for both teams to go over the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Blue Jays Odds, Line, Spread
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -148 | 8.5 -122o / +102u | +142 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 8.5 -122o / +102u | -170 |
Padres vs Blue Jays Projected Pitchers
| RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) | Stat | RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.45 / 5.61 | ERA /xERA | 4.59 / 4.37 |
| 5.13 / 5.95 | FIP / xFIP | 3.78 / 3.79 |
| 1.49 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| -1.5% | K-BB% | 16.9% |
| 41.4% | GB% | 37.1% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 97 | Location+ | 107 |
Padres vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Time to Sell Sell Vasquez
Now is the time to sell high on Vasquez. Coupled with his other statistics, the right-hander’s 3.45 ERA is entirely unsustainable.
He is due for regression, evidenced by his 5.61 xERA. Vasquez particularly struggles with command and is one of the rare pitchers with a negative K-BB%.
Subsequently, he ranks in the 19th percentile in xBA and the 27th percentile in barrel rate.
The good news for Vasquez is that he should receive plenty of run support. Entering this matchup, San Diego ranks in the top 12 in the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, OBP and OPS.
That success is likely to continue against Gausman. Through 176 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Padres roster boasts a .288 batting average, .447 slugging percentage and .326 wOBA.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Can Jays Produce Runs?
The same is true for the other side, albeit with a smaller sample size.
Through 18 combined plate appearances against Vasquez, the current Toronto roster sports a .313 batting average, .688 slugging percentage and .448 wOBA.
While the Blue Jays may not have the most powerful lineup, they are still capable of manufacturing runs. Toronto ranks in the top half of the league in hits per game, batting average and OBP.
Meanwhile, Gausman should serve as a good fade candidate. Through nine starts this season, the former first-round draft pick is 3-4 with a 4.59 ERA.
He also ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Padres vs Blue Jays Pick, Best Bets
The only reason this total isn’t higher than nine is that both bullpens are solid. However, it may not even matter by the time the later innings roll around.
Playing the F5 total is also a good consideration to avoid the bullpen factor. That said, I don’t think either bullpen is dominant enough to avoid taking the full-game total.
Pick: Over 9 (+100 · Play to -105)
Padres vs Blue Jays Betting Trends to Know
