With one of our picks rained out, we went 2-3 on MLB NRFI and YRFI bets yesterday. However, one of the wins was a +215 single-team YRFI, so it was a roughly break-even day depending on your unit sizing.
I've got four picks on Wednesday, two each between the afternoon and evening slates.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions for Wednesday, May 21.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 21, 2025
Pirates vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney vs. Brady Singer
We hit this bet on Tuesday in a game that produced just one total run, and we're going back to it with very similar reasoning.
Just like yesterday, we have a bad overall offense (Pittsburgh) and another offense drastically on the wrong side of its platoon splits in Cincinnati. The Reds are facing another lefty in Andrew Heaney, which is rough for their lineup in general but particularly at the top.
Both pitchers are very good early in games, with Heaney featuring a 2.29 first time through the order ERA and Singer at 1.74.
With this game being in Pittsburgh instead of Cincinnati it checks all the boxes, and the -125 price at BetMGM is solid, with a few other books also playable.
Astros vs. Rays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Hunter Brown vs. Taj Bradley
Hunter Brown trails only Tarik Skubal in terms of odds to win the AL Cy Young.
Brown has an elite 1.43 ERA through nine starts and has been borderline untouchable. His early game splits are actually slightly worse than his overall numbers, but that's a minor quibble given his overall performance.
Plus, he's taking on a Rays team that's not especially strong at the top, with the middle of their order likelier to do any damage.
On the other side, the Astros offense is mediocre at best, and Taj Bradley has a 3.59 xFIP his first time through the order. That's not elite by any stretch, but given how strong one side of the equation is we can certainly take the NRFI at this price.
Padres vs. Blue Jays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Randy Vasquez vs. Kevin Gausman
The Padres play their home games in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball, with Petco Park cutting scoring by about 8% over the past three seasons.
Now they're in Toronto, a roughly average stadium in terms of offense.
Their home stadium explains the wide gap between Randy Vasquez's actual ERA and expected numbers. He has a 3.45 ERA but his expected numbers are in the mid-fives or higher depending on the metric. His first time through the order xFIP is an especially ugly 6.46, which suggests he's been bailed out by his home stadium often this year.
Plus, we have two solid offenses, with the Blue Jays' big bats seemingly recovered from an early season slump. That's enough to take the YRFI given the nine run total.
Angels vs. Athletics NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jack Kochanowicz vs. JP Sears
I toyed with a few different ways of playing this game, but the general thesis is that the A's are fairly likely to score early, while the Angels are not.
The Athletics are facing Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 4.94 xFIP overall and 5.15 xFIP his first time through the order. They also have well above-average hitters in the two through five spots in their lineups.
The Angels are facing JP Sears, who has a 1.69 ERA his first time through the order. Sears is a lefty, and the Angels have a 59 wRC+ mark against southpaws on the season.
The A's YRFI is an option but pretty aggressively priced at +165 — as is their first inning moneyline, which has a best price of +220.
However, I like getting plus money on them to score the first run.
We're getting that price because the Angels get to hit first, but there's a few ways this can go right with the A's having a much better offense and Sears typically starting strong.
