For Wednesday, May 21, I'm on four MLB home run props: Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker (against the Rays), Kyle Tucker (against the Marlins), Logan O'Hoppe (against the Athletics) and Mookie Betts (against the Diamondbacks).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, May 21
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:10 p.m. | |
| 1:10 p.m. | |
| 1:10 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 21
Isaac Paredes (+500)
at Rays (SP: RHP Taj Bradley)
Isaac Paredes has been good for the Astros this season with eight home runs through 47 games.
This spot is one of the best of the day with a matchup vs. Taj Bradley, who is a reverse-splits pitcher and has been a gas can for righty power in his career, allowing a massive 2.12 HR/9.
George M. Steinbrenner Field is good venue for power hitters and the weather should be incredible, with temperatures around 90 degrees during game time and wind blowing out at 10 mph in one of the most wind-receptive parks in the league.
I have the true odds here around +400.
Christian Walker (+340)
at Rays (SP: RHP Taj Bradley)
Christian Walker has been off to a tough start this season, but the underlying power numbers have been similar to years past, so the bombs should be coming soon.
What I said about Rays starter Taj Bradley once again applies here — it's a good matchup for Walker like it is for Paredes.
I have the true odds here under +300.
Kyle Tucker (+425)
at Marlins (SP: RHP Max Meyer)
Kyle Tucker has been absolutely fantastic to start the season with 11 home runs and similar power numbers to last season (when he had 23 HRs in 78 games).
This matchup is great going up against Marlins right-hander Max Meyer, who has been a gas can for bombs in his career, allowing 1.91 HR/9.
Meyer has allowed more bombs to righties thus far, but he grades out as a better matchup for lefty power.
I have the true odds here around +350.
Logan O'Hoppe (+350)
at Athletics (SP: LHP JP Sears)
Sutter Health Park is one of the best in the majors for HRs and the weather is great today.
Temperatures are going to be mid-80s during game time and the wind is blowing out at 8 mph in one of the most wind receptive ballparks in the majors.
Logan O'Hoppe has been incredible this season and his underlying power numbers have been some of the best in the league this year.
I have the true odds on O'Hoppe today around +250.
Mookie Betts (+525)
vs Diamonbdacks (SP: RHP Corbin Burnes)
The weather in LA should be good, with temperatures in the high-70s during game time and winds blowing out at 9 mph.
I don't know what's going on with Diamondbacks starter Corbin Burnes at the moment, but he seems to be broken vs. righties.
Historically, he's been an average to slightly above-average matchup for righty power, allowing a 1.17 HR/9, but this season, something isn't right.
The hard-contact numbers are up and his K rate is down. He's allowed a 1.50 HR/9 and is an above-average matchup for righty power this season.
Mookie Betts has been good recently and looks to be in peak form.
I have the true odds here around +450.
