The Minnesota Twins host the Cleveland Guardians on May 21, 2025. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Read our Guardians vs Twins prediction and MLB picks below.
My Guardians vs Twins Prediction
Guardians vs Twins Picks:
Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Guardians vs Twins Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -102 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -118 |
Guardians vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | RHP Chris Paddack (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 4.29 / 5.09 | ERA / xERA | 4.05 / 4.23 |
| 4.54 / 3.75 | FIP / xFIP | 4.78 / 4.84 |
| 1.64 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 14.4% | K-BB% | 8.3% |
| 37.5% | GB% | 38.4% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 89 | Location+ | 112 |
Alex Kolodziej's Guardians vs Twins Preview
One of my favorite strategies in MLB betting involves targeting two plus-money player props from the same game, especially when our PRO Projections show substantial value.
By comparing player projections, odds, probabilities and more, we identify scenarios where the combined edge can lead to a profitable day even if only one bet hits.
That’s precisely the approach we’re taking for Wednesday’s Twins-Guardians matchup.
We’re focusing on home run props from two players on the Twins who stand out in our models.
A key piece of intel: Target Field is notoriously tough on left-handed hitters regarding home runs, so our projections favor right-handed bats.
Twins Home Run Prop No. 1: Royce Lewis
First up is Royce Lewis, who our models predicted would launch his first homer of the season on Sunday.
Our models project Lewis with an 18% chance of going yard on Wednesday, which translates to fair odds closer to +450 than +675.
Pick: Royce Lewis Home Run (+675, BetMGM)
Twins Home Run Prop No. 2: Ryan Jeffers
Paired with Lewis is Ryan Jeffers.
Our models project Jeffers with a 16% chance of hitting a homer on Wednesday, translating to fair odds closer to +525.
Pick: Ryan Jeffers Home Run (+700, BetMGM)
