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Marky’s MLB Forecast: Phillies-Red Sox Total on the Move, But Not Because of Weather

Jul 30, 2018 3:35 PM EDT

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Red Sox lefty David Price

  • All nine games have a Weather Rating between 38 and 56.
  • Just one game — Miami at Atlanta — has a legitimate chance of rain.
  • The Phillies-Red Sox over/under looks like it'll move from 9 to 8.5 soon, but that's more because of heavy action on the under than weather.

Today’s weather is not the most exciting I’ve ever seen. In fact, I would call it a snoozefest.

I guess my job today is a bit simple, but I’d honestly prefer some more excitement. A little fun. All work and no play makes Marky a dull boy.

Our Weather Rating distills the hitter-friendliness for a particular game into one number. It is a proprietary Fantasy Labs model and shown on a scale of 0 to 100. The Weather Rating does not account for potential rainouts; rather, it simply examines all relevant atmospheric conditions (temperature, altitude, wind speed, humidity, and so on) to determine how batted-ball distance will be impacted.

Highest Weather Ratings

  • Brewers at Dodgers: 56
  • Marlins at Braves: 56
  • Giants at Padres: 52

There is not really any “hot” weather this evening, which is keeping the Weather Ratings on the low side. These three games are the only ones that are above average — and just barely.

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The total in LA has dropped from 8 to 7.5, making it the second-lowest of the night behind Houston and Seattle’s 7. On a side note, the Weather Rating in Seattle is 49. This would be the highest rating at a Safeco Field night game this year that didn’t involve a closed roof.

In Atlanta, which holds the night’s highest chance of rain, the total has gone from 8.5 to 9. This stemmed from a steam move at Heritage last night.

Lowest Weather Ratings

  • Indians at Twins: 38
  • Blue Jays at Athletics: 38
  • Phillies at Red Sox: 39

The highs aren’t very high, and the lows aren’t very low. I told you it was uneventful.

Interestingly enough, the total in Minnesota has gone from 9.5 to 10 at BookMaker, making it the highest of the night. Bets are split about 60/40 in favor of the over, which is pretty commonplace,  but the over is getting nearly 90% of the cash, which helps explain the move.

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Most folks seem to be pretty surprised at the total of 9 in Boston, where David Price will be facing off against Aaron Nola. With two big names on the hill and a low Weather Rating, nearly 70% of bets are on the under. With heavy juice now on the under, we could see a move to 8.5 soon.


The beginning of last week was a handful, but this slate doesn’t look too troubling in terms of rain.

  • Marlins at Braves: Essentially every game in Atlanta this time of year has a shot at storms. Right now, it’s looking like the highest chance for rain is between 7 and 8 p.m. The game starts at 7:30…

There’s also an outside shot at a shower or storm in St. Louis, where the Cards will be hosting the Rockies.

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