The Philadelphia Phillies host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SDPA and MLB.TV.
The Phillies will look to make it three consecutive wins after a convincing 4-0 victory in the series opener, which saw Zack Wheeler continue his push for the NL Cy Young with eight scoreless innings.
Bryce Harper also returned to the Phillies lineup in the series opener after missing more than three weeks with a right wrist injury.
Tuesday's game features a quality pitching matchup, as Nick Pivetta (3.36 ERA, 91 IP) will take on Cristopher Sanchez (2.79 ERA, 93 2/3 IP).
Find my Padres vs Phillies prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Padres vs Phillies Prediction
- Padres vs Phillies Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 · Play to -125)
My Phillies vs. Padres best bet is for both teams to go under the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Phillies Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 100o / -120u | +135 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -160 |
Padres vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Pivetta (SDP) | Stat | LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 3.36/3.80 | ERA /xERA | 2.79/3.18 |
| 3.26/3.51 | FIP / xFIP | 2.95/2.96 |
| 1.03 | WHIP | 1.16 |
| 21.3% | K-BB% | 19.4% |
| 31.8% | GB% | 55.4% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 112 | Location+ | 96 |
Padres vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Leaning on Arms
The Padres finished June with a record of 13-15 and now trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by 7.5 games in the NL West, and more importantly, are a game back of the final NL Wild Card spot.
Lesser offensive play was a concern for the Padres last month, as they ranked 21st with a wRC+ of 94 and held the 26th-ranked slugging percentage of .366.
San Diego has been considerably more productive against righties than lefties this season, as it ranks 19th with a wRC+ of 87 against left-handed pitching this season, with the lowest hard-hit rate in MLB. The Padres currently have no position players listed on the IL.
Pivetta has had a great start to his four-year, $55 million contract with the Padres, posting a 3.36 ERA and 3.51 xFIP in his first 16 appearances with the team. He holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 21.3% and a Pitching+ rating of 108.
Pivetta's recent form has been comparable to the entirety of the season. In his last 46 2/3 innings of work, he holds an ERA of 3.66 and an xFIP of 3.33 while striking out 10.03 batters per nine.
The Padres' bullpen was projected to be among the league's very best units this season and has remained highly effective following an excellent 2024 season.
San Diego's relievers currently hold the fourth-best ERA in MLB and the fourth-highest strikeout rate.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Sanchez's Dominance Fuels Confidence
After an excellent 2024 campaign in which Sanchez pitched to a 3.32 ERA in 181 2/3 innings of work, he's off to an even better start in 2025, entering this matchup with a 2.79 ERA and 2.96 xFIP.
Sanchez has generated groundballs 55.4% of the time, which is comparable to last season; however, he's struck out batters at a considerably higher rate (26.6% strikeout percentage).
Sanchez was brilliant in the month of June. In his five appearances, he recorded an average of 20.4 outs and allowed an ERA of just 1.85. He held an xFIP of 2.89 and a 0.91 WHIP. He also posted an elite Stuff+ rating of 115 and a Pitching+ rating of 115.
The Phillies struggled offensively in the month of June, finishing with a 19th-ranked wRC+ of 95 and a slugging percentage of .386 that ranked 20th.
Harper's return provides one cause for optimism, and Philadelphia's proven lineup has been fairly consistent over the last two seasons, which suggests the downswing doesn't need to be cause for too much panic.
Padres vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
Sanchez has been one of the most dominant starters in baseball this season and has been extremely sharp of late.
The Padres are capable of producing better results offensively than we've seen recently, but a matchup against Sanchez could prove to be a tough get-right spot.
They have also struggled against lefties all season and were a below-average team vs. lefties in 2024.
Pivetta's ERA has crept up a little bit recently, but his underlying metrics still suggest he's pitching at an above-average level.
He will be supported by one of the league's best bullpens, and San Diego should have a decent chance of hanging around in what could be a tightly contested matchup.
Citizens Bank Park plays as a slightly above-average field in terms of run creation, but considering the starting pitching matchup and the recent form of these two offenses, a total of 8.5 still appears to be too high for this matchup.
At -125 or better, I see value in betting the under.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs -120 Bet365 (Play to -125)
Moneyline
With the Phillies currently sitting at -170, there doesn't look to be value in betting either side.
Sanchez has been fantastic recently, and betting on him right now seems enticing, but Pivetta has been strong in his own right and should be capable of giving his side a fighting chance.
Run Line (Spread)
There doesn't look to be value in betting the run line.
Over/Under
As outlined, betting this game to feature under 8.5 runs is my favorite play.
