The Chicago Cubs host the Cleveland Guardians on July 1, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
Find my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs Cubs pick below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Guardians vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
- Guardians vs Cubs pick: Under 8 (-112 DraftKings)
My Guardians vs Cubs best bet is under 8. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Cubs Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +114 | 8 -106o / -113u | +155 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -138 | 8 -106o / -113u | -185 |
Guardians vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 7-3 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 3.68 / 4.35 | ERA /xERA | 2.65 / 3.44 |
| 4.63 / 4.27 | FIP / xFIP | 3.57 / 4.01 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| 10% | K-BB% | 16.6% |
| 44.8% | GB% | 36.0% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 92 | Location+ | 107 |
The Betting Insider’s Guardians vs Cubs Preview
Matthew Boyd has been one of the more reliable arms in the Cubs’ rotation this season, leading the team with 11 quality starts while holding a 2.65 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He’s been even better at home, holding a 2.41 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a .212 opponent OBA. Boyd isn’t going to blow hitters away with velocity, but he mixes location and pitch variety with veteran savvy. He does an excellent job limiting hard contact, with an average exit velocity around 88 mph, and avoiding free passes as he holds a walk rate of just 5.7%. He’s coming off a six-inning scoreless gem against the Cardinals, and now faces off against a Guardians squad that has been awful against lefties all year long. Cleveland ranks 27th in wRC+, 28th in batting average, and 29th in slugging vs LHP this season.
Cleveland will counter with right-hander Gavin Williams, who’s shown promise despite some inconsistency. Through 16 appearances, Williams owns a 5–3 record with a 3.68 ERA and 80 strikeouts in just over 80 innings pitched. He has looked much more solid as of late after a slow start to the season, posting a 2.91 ERA and holding batters to a .207 batting average since the start of May. However, command has remained a concern as he holds a 13% walk rate this season and a 14% walk rate since the start of May. But he’s been able to work himself out of jams thanks to his ability to generate whiffs, induce ground balls, and limit hard contact.
Guardians vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
Both pitchers will be aided by some favorable conditions at Wrigley Field, the most wind-receptive stadium in Major League Baseball, with a favorable wind direction and relatively cool temperatures for this time of year.
These weather conditions, as well as a few recent trends, have triggered three of The Betting Insiders most profitable MLB systems, built using Action Labs.
System 1: Wrigley Field Unders (59% win rate, 13% ROI)
Game is being played at Wrigley Field
Wind is not blowing “out”
Total is between 7.5 and 12.5
System 2: Home team favored and just snapped an over streak, fair weather (64% win rate, 23% ROI)
Home team is favored up to -300
Home team has gone over in 2 of its last 3 games
Home team went under in its previous game
Wind is not blowing “out”
Average temperature is below 85°F
Total is between 7.5 and 9
System 3: Heavily favored home teams off a shutout loss (67% win rate, 28% ROI)
Home team scored 0 runs in its previous game
Home team’s moneyline is between -175 and -325
Total is between 8 and 10
Data tracked since 2014
Pick: Under 8 (-112 DraftKings)
Moneyline
I will not be betting either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I am also staying away from the spread.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I see value on Under 8.
