For Tuesday, July 1, I'm on four MLB home run props: .
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Tuesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds ā Tuesday, July 1
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:07 p.m. | |
| 3:07 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 8:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 1
Jazz Chisholm (+525)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Kevin Gausman)
I'm going back to the well with Jazz Chisholm today as he's in another good spot.
Kevin Gausman has historically been an average matchup for lefty power, but has been well above average this season, sitting at a 1.47 HR/9 to go along with good fly ball and hard contact numbers. Toronto has played as the third-best ballpark for homers this season and Chisholm's underlying numbers have been great with a 16.7% barrel rate to go along with great fly ball numbers.
I have the true odds of Chisholm homering today at around +400, making this a great EV bet.
Ben Rice (+460)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Kevin Gausman)
A lot of what was said about Chisholm applies here as they are both going up against Gausman and playing in Toronto. Additionally, the power numbers for Rice have been great this season (16.4% barrel rate) and I have the true odds of him homering in this spot at under +400, which makes this a great bet.
Ronald Acuna Jr. Home Run (+350)
vs Angels (SP: LHP Tyler Anderson)
The weather is a bit of a concern today, but if this game gets postponed, this bet will be void. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been one of the best hitters in the league this season since coming back from injury and the matchup is a great one.
Tyler Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher, but still gives up a massive 46.8% fly ball rate to righties. I have the true odds on Acuna homering today at around +300, making this a good EV bet.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+500)
vs Guardians (SP: RHP Gavin Williams)
Pete Crow-Armstrong's odds are far too good today considering the matchup. The weather in Chicago isn't bad with temperatures in the low 80s and good humidity. While the wind will be blowing in slightly during the start of the game, it should die out as the game goes on be mostly crossing.
Gavin Williams has been a plus matchup for lefty power, giving up 1.32 HR/9 this season to go along with high fly ball and hard contact numbers. Crow-Armstrong has been one of the best home run hitters in the league with 21 homers in 83 games and I have the true odds of him homering today at +400, making this a great EV bet.
