The Chicago Cubs host the Cleveland Guardians on July 1, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. EDT; the game will broadcast on CLEG.
Find my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
The Cubs and Guardians will begin their 2016 World Series rematch at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night. The Cubs enter tonight's contest as -176 home favorites over Cleveland, with the total set at over/under 8 runs.
My Guardians vs Cubs Prediction
- Guardians vs Cubs pick: Cubs -1.5 (+125 | Play to -115)
My Guardians vs Cubs best bet is on Chicago to cover the run line at +125. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Cubs Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -105 / -115 | +144 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -105 / -115 | -176 |
Guardians vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.65/3.44 | ERA /xERA | 3.68/4.35 |
| 3.57/4.00 | FIP / xFIP | 4.62/4.27 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 1.43 |
| 3.9 | K-BB% | 1.8 |
| 36% | GB% | 44.8% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 107 | Location+ | 92 |
Sean Paul's Guardians vs Cubs Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Over 48 career outings spanning three years, the idea of Gavin Williams remains better than the reality. Williams strikes out 8.93 batters per nine — the second-lowest mark of his career.
For many pitchers, posting a K/9 close to 9.00 would be a huge win. It does feel mildly underwhelming in Williams’s case, just based on his dominance when he’s going well.
However, Williams's command woes make going well pretty few and far between, as he issues 5.02 walks per nine. That’s the highest mark for any major league pitcher with more than 50 innings pitched.
The key to facing Williams? Don't chase because he'll eventually get himself in trouble.
Of larger concern, the Guardians' bullpen has struggled of late. The middle-relief options, like Matt Festa and Kolby Allard, are mediocre at best. Hunter Gaddis has also struggled, allowing seven earned runs in his last two outings.
Cleveland's lineup posted a horrific 72 wRC+ in June, the worst in MLB by a convincing margin.
The Guardians also punched out 25.7% of the time, putting them 29th, just above the Rockies. They also rank dead last in hard-hit rate (26.8%) and 26th in barrel rate.
Sure, it's a bad month, but it doesn't get much worse than what the Guardians did in June. I doubt things will improve much. They won't be the worst offense in baseball, but they'll be outside the top 20 in wRC+ by the season's end.
The Guardians' best hitter in wRC+ in June was Lane Thomas with a strong 114. They have three other hitters who posted a wRC+ better than 100: Jose Ramirez, Nolan Jones and Kyle Manzardo.
The problem here is facing a southpaw, Jones and Manzardo won't start. That makes a terrible lineup even worse.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Cubs hurler Matthew Boyd probably feels indebted to the Guardians for giving him one final shot last year. He resurrected his career in Cleveland. Boyd will look to repay them by improving his dazzling 2.65 ERA.
Will Boyd maintain a sub 3.00 ERA? Probably not. He has 3.44 xERA and 3.57 FIP. Even if Boyd regresses to a 3.40 ERA, he's still a highly valuable pitcher for a team a bit short on reliable arms.
Boyd will aim to avoid the minor regression versus the Guardians abominable lineup. While the Cubs offense can remain patient against Williams, the Guardians will have to strike early in counts against Boyd.
He's a big-time strike-thrower, ranking in the 84th percentile in walk rate.
Plus, Boyd can keep the Guardians off balance early in counts by inducing weak contact as he so often does, ranking in the 67th percentile in hard-hit rate and 70th in average exit velocity.
The Cubs finished June with an 111 wRC+, which put them 11th. Although finishing a month 11th in wRC+ is really strong, that feels like the absolute floor for this Cubs team.
They should be a top-10 offense the rest of the way, particularly if Carson Kelly, Matt Shaw and Dansby Swanson improve upon their below-average wRC+.
Chicago's offense does a ton of damage and hits the ball hard, hitting an MLB-best 45 homers in June.
The lineup is plenty balanced, as it has lefty pop with Ian Happ, Michael Busch, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, and righty-pop from Seiya Suzuki.
Guardians vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'll go with the Cubs to snag a multi-run victory here.
If you think the Cubs win outright, then it's a safe bet to assume a win will come by multiple runs, which they've done in five straight games.
Chicago to win by two runs at plus-money is a strong bet.
The Cubs' lineup is a clear advantage and Boyd is much more trustworthy than Williams.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+125 | Play to -115)
Moneyline
No play
Run Line (Spread)
I like the Cubs run line
Over/Under
No play
