The Boston Red Sox (42-44) and Cincinnati Reds (44-41) will meet in the MLB on Tuesday night. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSOH and MLB.TV.
Boston is a -120 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Cincinnati is +100 to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, the over/under comes in at 10 total runs.
Continue below for my Reds vs Red Sox predictions and MLB picks below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Reds vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks
- Reds vs Red Sox Pick: Over 10 (-110)
My Red Sox vs. Reds best bet is on the Over at 10 total runs, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Red Sox Odds for Tuesday, July 1
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 10 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 10 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- Reds vs Red Sox run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-185), Reds -1.5 (+150)
- Reds vs Red Sox over/under: 10 total runs
- Reds vs Red Sox moneyline: Red Sox -120, Reds +100
- Reds vs Red Sox best bet: Over 10 (-110)
Reds vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox MLB Preview
Yesterday obviously didn’t go the Reds’ way, but a big part of that was Cincinnati starter Chase Burns tipping his pitches early on, which is why he got hammered.
After that rough first inning, the game mostly evened out. If you take out that shaky start from Burns, the Red Sox still probably come away with a 6-5 win, but both teams combined for 11 runs, so the offense was still there.
Looking at the matchup, I’m not super impressed with Reds starter Brady Singer. His xERA sits at 4.7, nearly identical to last year’s 4.65, but his xFIP has crept up from 3.6 to 4.5.
Plus, his K-BB rate is heading in the wrong direction, dropping from 15% to 11%, which is below league average.
So, while the Red Sox have been struggling without Rafael Devers in the lineup, I think they can still get to Singer and put runs on the board.
On the other side, the Reds are in their better offensive split today. After facing a lefty yesterday — which they rank 25th against — they have a righty in Richard Fitts today.
Luckily for Cincy, the Reds rank 15th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (102).
Fitts is a guy I’ve always seen some upside in, though the results haven’t followed. His career xFIP sits at 4.9 with only about an 8% K-BB rate, which essentially makes him a replacement-level starter.
He has a good slider and some promise, and the Red Sox have done well with pitching development, but he has also been hit hard in his starts so far.
Reds vs Red Sox Betting Predictions, Best Bet
Along with the matchup, the weather looks way better today.
The Reds are back in a spot where their offense should perform better, especially considering the conditions.
It’s a nice 87 degrees at first pitch, with a real feel of about 90. The wind is blowing out to right field at 8-10 mph, and there’s some rain and humidity on the way.
Overall, these conditions should bump offensive production by roughly 10% compared to a typical day at Fenway. I’d normally set the total around 9.7 runs, but today I’m pushing that closer to 10.5.
This also triggers the “Wind 10 Out” system on Action Labs, which historically has a solid track record, including a 54% win rate and 5.1% ROI overall. At Fenway, specifically, it’s even better with a 68-55-5 record for a 56% win rate and 6.5% ROI.
With all that in mind, I’m leaning toward the over 10 up to -108. The juice on 10.5 at +110 is also worth a look given the conditions and pitching matchups.
Pick: Over 10 (Play to 10.5)
Moneyline
Assuming everything checks out in terms of lineups, I'll probably also bet the Red Sox on the moneyline along with the total.
Run Line (Spread)
While I'll likely bet Boston on the moneyline, I don't have a bet on the run line.
Over/Under
My best bet for this game is for both teams to go over the total. The matchup between Brady Singer and Richard Fitts, along with the weather, make this a great over spot where we could see double-digit runs.
Reds vs Red Sox Betting Trends
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