Stuckey: Is Now the Perfect Time to Start Fading the Colorado Rockies?

Stuckey: Is Now the Perfect Time to Start Fading the Colorado Rockies? article feature image
Credit:

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rockies Raimel Tapia and Trevor Story

  • After a historic 9-1 homestand, the Rockies will visit the Cubs to kick off a six-game road trip.
  • Stuckey takes a closer look at whether or not this is now the perfect time to fade Colorado.

After an extremely slow start to the season, the Rockies are rolling. They just finished up a 10-game homestand with a 9-1 record after securing their eighth straight win on Sunday.

As a result, Colorado improved its record from 22-26 less than two weeks ago to 31-27 — and now sit  just 0.5 game out of the second National League Wild Card spot.

It shouldn’t surprise anybody that Colorado went on this recent run at Coors Field, as the Rockies have the most drastic home/road splits in all of baseball. Just take a look at their splits since 2005, per BetLabs.

If you simply bet $100 on the Rockies in every home game since 2005, you would have netted +$591. If you did that for their road games, you’d be down -$8,198.

Take a look at almost any Colorado hitter over that span and you will see those drastic splits play out in their statistics. And it makes sense. Not only do the Rockies play in an extremely hitter-friendly park, the altitude weakens the break on breaking balls, making them easier to hit at Coors Field.

However, that also means they become much more difficult to hit when they hit the road — and aren’t used to the same break that other teams see on a nightly basis.

Historic Homestand

The Rockies 9-1 homestand is actually tied for the best in franchise history (minimum three opponents). They have only gone 8-2 or better four previous times — both of which came over a two-year span in 2009 and 2010.

After a 33-6 record (84.6%) over the course of those four previous extended home winning streaks, those solid Rockies squads went a combined 13-23 (36.1%) on the subsequent road trips. Their runs per game dropped from 6.2 during those home streaks to 4.2 in the following road trips.

And since 2005, Colorado is specifically just 56-81 (40.9%) in the first road game after a homestand of at least six games. It isn’t the largest sample size in the world but the causation is there.

Buy Low, Sell High

Buy low. Sell high, An adage as old as the hills that works in almost every industry.

This is the perfect time to sell a red-hot Colorado team after a historic homestand. Plus, let’s be honest, the Rockies went 9-1 against the Orioles, Blue Jays and Diamondbacks. Not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents.

Four of those nine wins also came by one-run and four came in walk-off fashion. Five of them essentially were coin flips that broke the Rockies’ way.

They will now begin a six-game road trip on Tuesday in Chicago against the Cubs before heading to Flushing to take on the Mets. Those are two teams that have scuffled of late as the Cubs have lost 13 of 19 and the Mets five of their last seven.

I ultimately don’t trust this Rockies lineup to consistently produce runs on the road. And their bullpen also looks ripe for an extended streak of blowups. Yes, they surprisingly rank in the top 10 in ERA but take a deeper look at some of their relievers. They should get closer Wade Davis back shortly, but this is still a below-average bullpen in my eyes. Their K/9 rate of 8.20 (28th in MLB) screams regression.

While it will obviously depend on price, I will be looking to fade the Rockies over their next six. In regards to tonight, -190 for Chicago is way too cheap. That line should be closer to -230.