Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Preview, Prediction: New York Getting Better End of Pitching Mismatch (Wednesday, June 16)

Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Preview, Prediction: New York Getting Better End of Pitching Mismatch (Wednesday, June 16) article feature image
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Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom.

Cubs vs. Mets Odds

Cubs Odds +245
Mets Odds -295
Over/Under 6.5
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds as Thursday afternoon via DraftKings.

The mismatch of the century might be in Wednesday’s game between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets, with  Jacob deGrom facing spot starter Robert Stock.

The Cubs have had an ailing lineup the last few games, which comes with poor timing as it prepares to face one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

Is there any possible edge for the Cubs to beat deGrom or is deGrom going to be his typical, dominant self? Robert Stock has a nice fastball, so will that be enough to triumph over the first-place New York Mets?

Chicago Star Bryant Questionable for NL East Contest

The Cubs might be without their best player in Kris Bryant after he left Tuesday’s game with a hand contusion. As a team, they’re slightly below average versus right-handers, so with deGrom on the hill the hits will be few and far between. DeGrom’s last run allowed came back on May 25.

Chicago also ranks in the bottom 10 in strikeout percentage. So, with deGrom being one of the best strikeout pitchers, this looks to be a perfect concoction that will work to his advantage. The best plan of attack is to allow Patrick Wisdom and Joc Pederson the most possible at bats, as they’re the hottest hitters against righties for the Cubs this month.

On the other hands,  Chicago’s bullpen is amongst the hottest in baseball. They currently rank second in fWAR and first in bullpen, collective ERA at 2.59 ERA. However, the team 3.85 xFIP shows a bit of regression is in the cards. For the Cubs’ sake, it would be best if it didn’t come in a game against deGrom.

If Stock struggles, the Cubs do have plenty of middle relief weapons waiting in the wings, like Andrew Chafin, Rex Brothers, and Tommy Nance. Unless they are somehow leading this game, Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera more than likely will not be pitching.

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New York Mets

The Mets are an average hitting team against righties, but they’re fortunate enough to not be the ones facing deGrom. As stated above, Stock has a lively fastball, but Francisco Lindor’s resurgence as an elite hitter couldn’t be coming at a better time. Lindor currently sports a 169 wRC+ since May 31.

Billy McKinney has filled into the Mets’ outfield nicely with a few injuries and Dominic Smith might finally be turning things around as well. Eight members of the Mets’ lineup are slugging above the 100 wRC+ mark since June started, so Stock does have his hands full.

New York has an above-average bullpen with a 3.70 ERA, which is almost exactly in line with their 3.69 xFIP. Basically, they are performing as expected. Now, deGrom does not necessarily need much backup with a slumping Cubs team and should be able to go about seven innings, but having Edwin Díaz, Aaron Loup and Jeurys Familia is great for closing out a game.

Those weapons should be in full force if deGrom doesn’t go the distance, since Seth Lugo mopped up relief duties in Tuesday’s 3-2 victory over the Cubs.

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Cubs-Mets Pick

It’s nearly impossible to fade deGrom at this juncture. He is elite in every category and a spot starter with a struggling lineup will not get the job done for the Cubs in this meeting.

Stock’s lively fastball might struggle against a Mets offense that is coming into its own at the moment. New York’s bullpen is in far better shape to close down a likely strong start from its ace.

Given all of these favorable signals, the run line for the Mets at -1.5 (-118) is the play to -135 odds. Expect New York’s lineup to attack early and often.

Pick: Mets -1.5 (-118 — play to -135)

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