Lo Duca: Betting Against Another High-Scoring D-backs-Rockies Affair

Credit:

Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports. Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland (21).

Betting odds: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, 3:10 p.m. ET

  • Diamondbacks (Robbie Ray): -112
  • Rockies (Kyle Freeland): +102
  • Over/under: 11 (u+105)

The first thing that always jumps off the page when betting baseball are the over/unders at Coors Field in Denver, Colo. Last night books closed the total at an insanely high 12.5 (o-120), and the Rockies scored 19 themselves.

Yes, you heard me right: 19 runs.

Nine times out of 10 when this happens, the public comes back for more the next night and continues to bet the over. That’s what we’re seeing in tonight’s matchup, with the majority of bets on the Over 11 at the time of publication.

The trap has been set.

A few reasons I’m not buying another offensive explosion:

1. The over/under is 11, a low total considering the score last night. That should tell you books aren’t afraid of over action in tonight’s matchup.

2. Speaking of the matchup, Robbie Ray’s 5.23 ERA won’t blow you away, but look at his splits. He’s really struggled at home (7.97 ERA), compared to on the road (2-0 record, 2.78 ERA). Opponents are hitting .188 against Ray away from Arizona.

3. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland went toe to toe with Madison Bumgarner earlier this month and has been solid as a rock overall this season. He’s unlucky to just have a 8-6 record. Freeland’s 3.18 ERA is respectable, and yes, he has better splits at Coors Field.

4. A few under-the-radar storylines to consider, as well: With the 1:10 p.m. local start, you’ll get some shadows late in this game, making it tough on hitters. And most managers this time of year see the All-Star Break coming and want to ride their horses. Look for some fatigue from the players.

The pick: Under 11


Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights. 

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