The Tampa Bay Rays host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 21, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cardinals vs Rays Prediction
- Cardinals vs Rays picks: Cardinals ML
My Cardinals vs Rays best bet is on Cardinals moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Rays Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
Cardinals vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Sonny Gray (STL) | Stat | RHP Joe Boyle (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-6 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 3.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.30 / 3.81 | ERA /xERA | 4.68 / 4.08 |
| 3.24 / 2.97 | FIP / xFIP | 5.26 / 4.96 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 22.7% | K-BB% | 11.5% |
| 40.9% | GB% | 35.3% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 103 | Location+ | 82 |
Kenny Ducey’s Cardinals vs Rays Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Coming Out of the Gray
After a treacherous July, which saw the veteran post a 7.81 ERA in six starts, Sonny Gray finally appeared to reel it in with two solid outings against the Dodgers and Cubs to open up the month of August. He would follow that up by surrendering six runs on nine hits against the Yankees last week, but on the whole, this is more or less a better version of Gray.
The righty's Expected Batting Average for the month stands at a cool .204 — representing his best of the year — and that's come along with a much-improved .400 Expected Slugging. Gray stands as a classic high-strikeout arm who's had issues keeping home runs at bay, but the fascinating part of this is that he's not necessarily a fly-ball pitcher — nor does he play at a hitter's park. In fact, his ground-ball rate has steadily risen as the months have gone on, but that hasn't been his issue.
Gray's strikeout rate took a plunge to around 25% from June to July, and while it's come up to 29.7% so far this month, it's not as if his whiff rates are getting any better. He'll need to continue striking out hitters at this pace to mitigate the risk brought on by his poor barrel rate and xSLG, but he can still rely on his continued excellence in the walk column and his otherwise fine xBA in recent outings.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Still Need More From Boyle
The handicap on Joe Boyle is quite simple: Can this guy throw strikes? Can his opponent manage to stay patient enough to draw a walk? Those are the two questions that will always need answering, at least for now, because the jury is very much still out on this popular young arm.
Boyle's massive fastball is still generating an impressive 25.9% whiff rate while his slider and splitter have looked unhittable, but location has been a huge issue. Boyle owned a walk rate over 10% in Triple-A this season, and so far in 32 2/2 innings this season, he's come home at 12.9%. It's not as if these issues have to last forever, and he's at least done a better job of throwing strikes than his short 2024 season, but it wouldn't appear these issues are cleaning themselves up at the moment.
The right-hander does, unlike his counterpart, give up a lot of fly balls, and like Gray, he's also been burned by the longball quite a bit at this level. He's surrendered six homers in his past five outings, and most concerning of all is that he's slowed down considerably in the strikeout department.
Cardinals vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Cardinals have slowly become an impatient team at the plate, going from a modest 8% walk rate throughout the season to 7.3% since the break and 6.6% in the last two weeks. The good news is that even with their increased strikeout numbers over that span, they're still far from the guiltiest team in the league when it comes to punching out.
They've also critically ranked 13th in OPS against fly-ball pitchers this season, and will always own more suppressed power numbers given their brutal home park. There aren't an abundance of reasons to believe in this offense at the moment, but it's going to be hard for me to back Boyle given all the issues we covered — and the hitter-friendly air we have in this Tampa park right now.
On the flip side, Gray should have a good opportunity to bounce back here against a Rays team that is 27th against ground-ball pitchers, and one that has struck out in an obscene 26.3% of plate appearances over the last two weeks. It's not like the Rays are slugging much better than the Cardinals at the moment, so we will want to go with the strongest arm here.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-115) | Play to -125
Moneyline
I'm picking the Cardinals here.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass.
Over/Under
Pass.
Cardinals vs Rays Betting Trends
