Dodgers vs. Astros Betting Odds & Pick: Back Bauer & LA On the Road (May 26)

Dodgers vs. Astros Odds

The Los Angeles Dodgers (30-18) have been on an absolute tear lately. They extended their active winning streak to eight games after a dominant 9-2 win over the Astros on Tuesday. Los Angeles is now in second place in the National League West and one half-game behind San Diego Padres (31-18).

The Dodgers' pitching has been brilliant during this run: L.A. has surrendered more than three runs only once during its last 10 games dating back to May 15.

Trevor Bauer takes the mound on Wednesday hoping to replicate Clayton Kershaw's stellar performance last night. The Dodgers left-hander pitched deep into Tuesday's game, allowing just one run in 7 2/3 innings. Bauer will be opposed by Houston's second-year pitcher, Luis Garcia.

While the Dodgers eight-game winning streak will draw plenty of attention, there's another streak on the line that could be even more relevant.

We'll touch on that and much more as we break down the final matchup of this two-game series.

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Momentum and Motivation Are Key for Dodgers

Baseball players can be very superstitious, so I'm certain there are plenty of Dodgers players that have been keeping the same routine during the last few weeks. Not only have the Dodgers won eight consecutive games, but furthermore they've won 12 of their last 13.

Last weekend's series against the former first-place Giants seemed to bolster L.A.'s confidence. The team's recent performance has been inspired, and Wednesday's matchup against the Houston Astros does not lack for further motivation.

Los Angeles no doubt revels in the prospect of extending its winning streak at the expense of the Houston Astros — the team they lost to in the 2017 World Series. There are enough Dodgers players remaining from the 2017 team that still recall how that series turned out.

There's no question that it's still a sore subject, especially after MLB later discovered that Houston was using video to steal signs from their opponents and relay them to their hitters during their at-bats. This series is personal for the Dodgers, and that motivation is clearly on their side in this matchup.

Let's take a look at how the Dodgers offense has faired over the last few weeks of their recent run compared to the season as a whole:

• Since May 8, Los Angeles has increased its wRC+ value to 119, six points higher than its season mark.
• The team's batting average is up .020 points from its season average of .247.
• Its on-base percentage is up .012 points to .358.

Bauer Can Cool Off Astros

The Astros have also been pretty hot at the plate themselves during the same span as the Dodgers' winning streak. In fact, Houston actually leads the league with a .287 batting average during that stretch. However, the Astros' bats haven't been enough to thwart their current four-game losing streak.

The fact that Kershaw was able to navigate through an Astros lineup with a .284/.342/.443 line against lefties is impressive. Houston does not fare quite as well against right-handers, as evidenced by the team's .256/.324/.410 slash line against righties.

The Astros' current lineup reports 84 career at-bats against Bauer, but unfortunately for Houston, those career numbers paint an even bleaker picture. The Astros lineup reports a .226/.316/.345 slash line against Bauer with a .298 wOBA.

Moreover, Houston must face a pitcher who is in remarkable form. Bauer has only allowed three combined earned runs in four starts this month, and he hasn't allowed an earned run in either of his last two starts.

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Regression Signs Are Looming

The Houston Astros lost the first five games that Luis Garcia started this season. The Venezuelan native lost all three of his decisions during that span, but he's picked up wins in his last two starts to improve his record to 2-3.

Garcia carries a 3.84 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, but his 4.74 FIP is almost 1.5 runs higher than his ERA, which makes him a clear candidate for regression.

His 0.66 GB/FB ratio might be the lowest I've seen this season for a starting pitcher, and he also has a HR/FB rate of 16%.

Fifty-one percent of Garcia's balls put in play are fly balls, and he's likely to give up more home runs at the rate he's going. Hitters are barreling him up 10.1% of the time, which is nearly double his 2020 season rate of 5.9%.

Garcia Can Be Vulnerable In Early Frames

Garcia has never faced the Dodgers before, but I'm not sure that will necessarily work to his advantage. He's been susceptible to allowing an early first-inning run in each of his last two starts.

If that trend continues on Wednesday night, then the Dodgers will see more pitches early in the game, which could benefit them later in their at-bats once Garcia begins to wear down.

The cause of Garcia's early-game struggles has been his inability to successfully establish his fastball. The fastball is his most-thrown pitch at 46.7%, but hitters are batting .300 against the pitch with .434 wOBA.

In fact, five of the seven home runs he's allowed have come against the fastball. That could spell trouble against a Los Angeles team that is 9.8 runs above average against the fastball, which places it among the league's top 10.

Dodgers vs. Astros Pick

To better assess this matchup, I utilized ActionLabs to investigated any situational trends that might help sway me one way or the other. Here's what I found:

• The Dodgers are 23-12 (+4.91 units) when coming off a game in which they scored at least nine runs and won by a margin of seven runs.
• When the Dodgers are coming off a game in which they scored exactly nine runs and won by seven runs, they're 7-2 for +5.38 units.
• Teams on an eight-game winning streak facing an opponent on a four-game losing streak are 13-8 for +2.52 units.

But, none of those trends caught my eye quite like this one: Trevor Bauer's teams are a perfect 9-0 (+8.93 units) against the Houston Astros.

That's a trend I'm just not comfortable fading at the moment, so I can only look to the Dodgers in this spot. FanDuel has the best price on the board at -138, so I'll look to place my action there.

Pick: Dodgers ML (-138)