Dodgers vs. Mets Odds, Preview, Prediction: Los Angeles Lineup Has Great Matchup (Saturday, August 14)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Trea Turner.
- The Dodgers and Mets continue their series in Queens on Saturday night at Citi Field.
- Walker Buehler starts in the midst of a Cy Young-caliber season, while the struggling Taijuan Walker will start for New York.
- Michael Arinze breaks down the matchup and how bettors should back the Dodgers lineup.
Dodgers vs. Mets Odds
|Time||Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings|
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will play the second of a three-game series on Saturday night.
In the series opener, Los Angeles held on for a 6-5 victory in extra innings. After trailing by four runs, the Mets leveled the score in the seventh inning. However, despite that initial comeback, they never looked more than second-best actually to win the game.
On the surface, you might think the Mets face a tough task as they try to rebound against Walker Buehler. However, in two starts against the Mets, the right-hander is 0-0 with a 6.30 ERA.
Our Action Network Bet Signals has tracked some sharp action on the over, with the total sitting at 8.5. With that in mind, I think the Dodgers can play a big part in this game going over.
Dodgers Bats Boosted by Turner
Los Angeles has been on an offensive tear of late, with at least five runs in five of its last six games and nine of its last 11.
The Dodgers’ recent road trip began in Philadelphia, and they outscored the Phillies 14-4 in the series. Something might have triggered them, and I suspect it has to do with the flurry of activity around the trade deadline.
While some might focus on the acquisition of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner was also a huge part of that blockbuster trade. This season, Turner has a .316/.363/.507 slash line with 18 home runs and 51 RBIs. His arrival has stretched the Dodgers lineup even more, and it’s likely fostered more of a healthy competition within the team.
Since the trade deadline, Los Angeles has had a wRC+ value of 118, a 10-point increase from their overall season value. The Dodgers have done a much better job playing situational baseball and moving runners over from station to station. In fact, they’ve only hit into five double plays, which are the fourth-fewest during that span. Only the Colorado Rockies (.292) have hit a higher batting average than the Dodgers (.272) since July 30.
Mets Need Improvement From Walker
It looked like things could only get better for Taijuan Walker after he was named to his first career All-Star team. He was 7-3 with a 2.50 ERA before the break, but it’s been downhill since then.
Walker has taken the loss in each of his last four starts and seen his ERA increase from 2.99 to 3.89 in that span. He may not be out of the woods just yet, as his 4.69 xERA and 4.40 FIP suggest further regression could still be on the cards.
The right-hander’s numbers at the start of the season may have been misleading, as he walked 14 batters in his first 21 innings of work. Those command issues have resurfaced yet again in the season, having issued 13 free passes over his last 20 innings. His hard-hit rate is up to 39.4%, at least a 6% increase over the last two years, and hitters are also barreling him up 9.3% of the time.
If we only focus on his last five starts, Walker’s barrel rate is up to 16.9%. He also has a 4.71 BB/9 ratio, 30.3% HR/FB rate, 9.86 ERA and 9.70 FIP during that span.
If you’re a pitcher struggling to find his form, I’d have to think that the Dodgers are at the top of the list of teams you’d less like to face. Los Angeles has scored at least five runs in five of their last six road games against the National League East and eight of their last 10 games against the Mets.
With the over attracting some sharp money, I like the Dodgers to score their share of runs in this game. I don’t see Walker all of a sudden figuring things out against this potent Los Angeles lineup.
The Dodgers’ team total is 4.5 runs, and I think the over is worth looking at in this spot.
Pick: Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-135)