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KBO Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Model (Thursday, June 11): Can Bears Even Season Series With Dinos?

KBO Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Model (Thursday, June 11): Can Bears Even Season Series With Dinos? article feature image

Han Myung-Gu/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Wright

Poor weather postponed the SK Wyverns-LG Twins matchup and caused a premature end to the KIA Tigers’ 10-0 win over the KT Wiz on Wednesday — necessitating that the Twins and Wyverns to play a midweek doubleheader on Thursday while providing the Tigers and Wiz pitchers with some extra rest prior to their weekend matchups.

Notably, the Tigers and Wyverns will play one another this weekend, so keep an eye on the Wyverns’ bullpen usage in their two Thursday games, and during the course of their series with the Tigers, who should be able to exploit a pitching-quality and rest advantage over the course of their three-game set.

After an extremely slow start to their season, the Wyverns are 7-3 over their past ten games, and they are beginning to claw their way back towards the wide-open wild card spot.

A pair of wins in Thursday’s doubleheader could put the Wyverns in a virtual deadlock with the Samsung Lions for seventh place, and on the heels of the Lotte Giants for sixth as they seek their fourth consecutive playoff appearance — and fifth in six seasons.

If you are looking for more information about the KBO League, check out my season primer. If you want to know more about Taiwan’s CPBL, you can find that here.

  • KBO Year to Date: 45-65 (-12.73 Units)
  • CPBL Year to Date: 34-26 (+9.98 Units)

KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model

Odds as of 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos

  • Bears moneyline: +140
  • Dinos moneyline: -186
  • Over/under: 11.5
  • Time: 5:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Probable Pitchers: Doosan Bears (Young-ha Lee) vs. NC Dinos (Mike Wright)

The Doosan Bears and NC Dinos will play a series decider on Thursday, and the Bears have the opportunity to even the season series at three games apiece while also narrowing the Dinos’ KBO lead down to three games.

Mike Wright will make yet another ESPN appearance for the Dinos, and he has already pitched on national TV more often this year than he did over five seasons in the major leagues.

Wright will face Young-ha Lee for the Bears, in a rematch from May 19, a game which the Dinos won, 5-4.

My biggest concern with Lee is his command. He has 24 strikeouts against 23 walks in 34 innings pitched this season — a decline from his career 1.49 strikeout to walk ratio — but Lee’s FIP (4.36) is roughly 9% better than league average, and in 2019 (3.95 FIP) he was roughly 5.5% better than the average KBO hurler.

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

The 23-year-old has yet to fully harness an enticing arsenal, which includes a 93 mph fastball, soft-contact cutter (87-88 mph), an out-pitch slider (80-81 mph), and some slow curveballs:

Wright walked five batters in his first turn against the Bears’ lefty-loaded lineup (5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 5 K) and he has allowed 16 free passes over his first 34 KBO innings (4.2 BB/9), producing a 4.86 FIP despite a 2.65 ERA thanks to a .233 batting average on balls in play (.312 league average).

He throws even harder than Lee (average 94.5 mph fastball in 2019) with a ton of arm side run, in addition to his wipeout slider:

Mike Wright had it all working today for the NC Dinos in their 13-2 win.

Wright's final line: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 7 K, 4 BB

All 7 Ks for the former Orioles starter:#KBO #NCDinos @taewoongii @NCDinosUK

— Connor Newcomb (@ConnorNewcomb_) June 5, 2020

Wright has bailed himself out of big spots this season thanks to his pitchability, but it is also a matter of time before an opposing offense cashes in on his spotty command, which seems to betray him for an inning or two per game.

I project the Dinos as 54.8% favorites for Wednesday, and I would bet the Dinos to -105 (implied 51.7%), which is a 3.1% edge compared to my projection.

Conversely, I would look to bet the Bears at +140 (implied 41.7%) or better, which is a 3.6% edge compared to my projection (45.3%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

I project the total at 12 runs and would bet Over 10.5 (-110) or Over 11 (+100) at a 4% edge.

See all of Thursday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Bears-Dinos game, and Thursday’s other KBO and CPBL games.

Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos Picks

  • Doosan Bears +197 (1 unit)
  • Doosan Bears Team Total, Over 4.5 (-125, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Full KBO Betting Card for June 11

  • Doosan Bears +197 (1 unit)
  • KIA Tigers -102 (1 unit)
  • Doosan Bears Team Total, Over 4.5 (-125, 0.5 units)
  • KT Wiz Team Total, Over 4.5 (-105, 0.5 units)
  • Kiwoom Heroes Team Total, Over 5.5 (-125, 0.5 units)
  • Samsung Lions Team Total, Over 4.5 (+115, 0.5 units)

KBO Year to Date: 45-65 (-12.73 Units)

Full CPBL Betting Card for June 11

  • Guardians / Brothers, Over 11.5 (-115, 0.5 units)

CPBL Year to Date: 34-26 (+9.98 Units)

Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 11

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: 

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