Mariners-Rockies Betting Preview: Don’t Take the Bait

Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured (left to right): Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonazalez, and Gerardo Parra

Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies, 9:10 p.m. ET

  • Mariners (Wade LeBlanc): +155
  • Rockies (Jon Gray): -172
  • Over/under 11.5

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Oddsmakers are not your friends. So when they put out a nice, juicy +155 line on a 58-37 team, they aren’t doing it to put another 20 in your pocket for Saturday night. Nope, contrary to popular belief, the people you are betting against actually want you to lose.

So why are the Mariners such a big dog against an opponent with an inferior record? Maybe it’s because the Rockies have won eight of their past 10 games. Maybe it’s because they hit lefties extremely well — their 163 runs scored off southpaws are the most in MLB. What I’m getting at is I have no idea. But that doesn’t matter. What matters is that there is a reason, not what the reason is.

Given the juicy line, 64% of bettors are taking Seattle tonight. Sharpies are not among them, however, as 70% of dollars are behind the Rockies, who’ve moved from -158 to -171 as a result.

If you know me, you know I’m about to shove a Bet Labs system in your face right about now.

Since 2005, favorites of -165 or more that have received less than 40% of bets, and have had at least five cents of line movement in their favor have gone 24-4, winning 9.2 units for a 32.8% ROI. They’ve also won by an incredible average of 3.32 runs, which begs the question: How do they perform against the run line? 19-9, 13.8 units won, and hello, a 49.3% ROI.

I could really use a win, so I’m rolling with the old half n’ half.

The pick(s): Rockies -172, -1.5 (+110) — half-unit each.

All data as of 4 p.m. ET. For live info, check out our MLB live odds page.

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
Newsletter
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories