Mariners-Rockies Betting Preview: Don’t Take the Bait

Jul 14, 2018 5:06 PM EDT

Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies, 9:10 p.m. ET

  • Mariners (Wade LeBlanc): +155
  • Rockies (Jon Gray): -172
  • Over/under 11.5

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Oddsmakers are not your friends. So when they put out a nice, juicy +155 line on a 58-37 team, they aren’t doing it to put another 20 in your pocket for Saturday night. Nope, contrary to popular belief, the people you are betting against actually want you to lose.

So why are the Mariners such a big dog against an opponent with an inferior record? Maybe it’s because the Rockies have won eight of their past 10 games. Maybe it’s because they hit lefties extremely well — their 163 runs scored off southpaws are the most in MLB. What I’m getting at is I have no idea. But that doesn’t matter. What matters is that there is a reason, not what the reason is.

Given the juicy line, 64% of bettors are taking Seattle tonight. Sharpies are not among them, however, as 70% of dollars are behind the Rockies, who’ve moved from -158 to -171 as a result.

If you know me, you know I’m about to shove a Bet Labs system in your face right about now.

Since 2005, favorites of -165 or more that have received less than 40% of bets, and have had at least five cents of line movement in their favor have gone 24-4, winning 9.2 units for a 32.8% ROI. They’ve also won by an incredible average of 3.32 runs, which begs the question: How do they perform against the run line? 19-9, 13.8 units won, and hello, a 49.3% ROI.

I could really use a win, so I’m rolling with the old half n’ half.

The pick(s): Rockies -172, -1.5 (+110) — half-unit each.

All data as of 4 p.m. ET. For live info, check out our MLB live odds page.

Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured (left to right): Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonazalez, and Gerardo Parra

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue
THE ACTION NETWORK

Sign up for The Action Network free daily newsletter

The best sports betting trends, insights and news - condensed into a two-minute read.
Sign up today, thank us tomorrow.
Follow Us: @ActionNetworkHQ
Download the App