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Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Pick & Preview: Fade New York in Bid for Sweep (April 10)

Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Pick & Preview: Fade New York in Bid for Sweep (April 10) article feature image
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John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Carrasco.

  • The Mets go for a four-game sweep of the Nationals this afternoon.
  • Carlos Carrasco will start for New York, opposite Erick Fedde.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Mets vs. Nationals Odds

Mets Odds -135
Nationals Odds +110
Over/Under 10 (-105 / -115)
Time 1:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have a National League East matchup as the Washington Nationals host the New York Mets. This is the fourth and final game of the series. The Mets have secured at least a split by winning the first two.

Will New York close the series with another win, or can the Nationals grab a win at home?

Carrasco Yet To Achieve Success With Mets

Right-hander Carlos Carrasco is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets in this matchup. Carrasco ended last season with three-straight losing starts, allowing five or more runs in two of those three losses.

In his one appearance against Washington last season, Carrasco gave up four hits and four runs in just one inning. The Nationals could find success again when they face Carrasco, especially since they will be at home.

Over Carrasco’s five road starts last season, he posted a brutal 6.17 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Washington’s current lineup has 105 career plate appearances against Carrasco, and those have not gone well for the Mets’ right-hander.

Against Carrasco, this lineup boasts a .293 batting average, .505 slugging percentage and .351 wOBA. New York may not give Carrasco much run support either as they are going against right-hander Erick Fedde.

Against right-handers last season, the Mets ranked just 19th in the MLB in average, 17th in on-base, 22nd in slugging and 18th in OPS.

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Nats Lineup Should Feast at Home

While Fedde’s career numbers against the Mets’ current lineup are not great, they are certainly better than Carrasco’s numbers.

Against Fedde, New York’s current lineup possesses a .254 batting average, .360 slugging percentage and .315 wOBA over 132 career plate appearances. I expect the National to give Fedde plenty of run support, especially at home going against a right-handed pitcher.

At home last season, the Nationals ranked fifth in the MLB in average, sixth in on-base, 11th in slugging and ninth in OPS. Washington had similar success against right-handers last year as they ranked sixth, fifth, 13th, and 11th in those same categories.

Regardless of whether they win or lose on Saturday night, it is hard for a team of the Nationals’ caliber to lose a series at home against a team with worse metrics. I like the way this game sets up for the Nationals, especially for the price we are getting them at.

Mets-Nationals Pick

In this matchup, the Nationals have both the pitching and hitting advantage. With both of those and playing at home, I like the Nationals to get the win as the underdog.

It has been a tough start to the season for the Nationals, but they should be able to turn It around to end this series on a positive note.

Pick: Nationals +123 (play to -110)

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