Stuckey: Regression Looms for a Few Pitchers I’m Looking To Bet Against in August


David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Astros starting pitcher Wade Miley

Aug 10, 2019, 11:00 AM EDT
  • As a follow up to my June 11 article, I recap the performances of the starters I targeted as betting fades and share where I stand on them now.
  • I also will discuss two other pitchers that are high regression candidates moving forward and offer my thoughts on a few other arms.

It has been almost two months since I highlighted six pitchers as potential fade targets in the baseball betting market. Well, the regression certainly hit for this group of arms that benefited from extremely good fortune over the first two-plus months of the season.

From the beginning of the season through June 11, those six starters had a combined 36-17 record with a sparkling 2.55 ERA. Since then, they’ve gone just 13-24 with a 5.52 ERA, which is almost poetic as the exact reverse numbers of their pre-June 11 ERA of 2.55.

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